Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Chacor]

FKIN20 VIDP 011505

DTG: 20080501/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: NARGIS
NR: 15

PSN: N1600 E09030
MOV: E10KT
C: 980 HPA

MAX WIND: 65KT GUSTING TO 75KT

FCST PSN+ 12 HRS: 020000 N1630 E09200
MAX WIND+12 HRS: 70KT

FCST PSN +18HRS: 020600 N1630 E09300
MAX WIND+18HRS : 75KT
FCST PSN+24HRS : 021200 N1700 E09400
MAX WIND+24HRS : 80 KT

NEXT MSG: 20080501/1800Z

[KWT]

Thats a very impressive image from Nasa, great structure this storm has, I'd be more inclined to agree with the JTWC estimate of it being at 90kts which is a little higher then the IMD estimates, though i guess they are 10 min wind speed values there?

Not looking foward to seeing what this storm does to the area it hits, is there any large populations near the estimated landfall?

[ugaap]

The estimated landfall for Nargis would be the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar. It is a populated area.

[KWT]

Well in that case I sure hope Nargis at the very least doesn't get any stronger, I think it may weaken a little before it makes landfall but still its going to be a fairly powerful tropical cyclone.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

nrl 90 knots = 105 mph
I say it looks like 110 mph. High end Category 2.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd personally go with 95kts myself but we better just hope that this is the peak of this system and from here it weakens, hopefully just as quick as it did the first time round otherwise there will probably be deaths from this cyclone.

[Derek Ortt]

the cyclone is probably between 105-120KT right now. The eye appears quite small.. to the point where the satellite is not able to properly resolve it. Similar to what happened with Wilma where the T numbers were about 6.0/6.0 or 6.5/6.5, yet it was the most intense hurricane ever

[KWT]

Woah would you really go that high Derek, well if your even close then i really do fear for those in the way of this system, certainly is a strong cyclone and your right it does have a very small eye.

[HURAKAN]

01/1430 UTC 15.8N 91.1E T6.0/6.0 NARGIS -- Bay of Bengal

115 knots according to Dvorak.

[KWT]

Yep that goes along with what Derek was saying, that would make it a cat-3 then wouldn't it?
not all that common in the North Indian basin though obviously they wouldn't go that high offically, the JTWC may however raise higher in thier next forecast, how high will be interesting to see however, wonder if they will go as high as the sat.imagery suggests?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

115 knots = 130 mph and as high as 120 knots = 140 mph

We are dealing with a High Category 3/Borderline
Category 4 Major Hurricane Here!!!
Yes folks, this is a very high end Category 3. This is VERY BAD
for areas in the path.

[HURAKAN]

A very devastating cyclone.

[KWT]

Ouch yeah thats very impressive if this system is really as strong as that, I do hope the IMD raise the winds expected otherwise they are going to be quite a way out with regards to strength which is obviously very bad news!

[CrazyC83]

Definitely in rapid deepening. I'd say at least 110-115 kt and a pressure around 947mb.

[KWT]

Yep and thats to be expected given it has that really small pinhole eye, I agree with you crazy based on the very impressive structure and that tiny eye I'd go with 110kts, which is very worrying indeed if thats indeed the case.

[cycloneye]

Is the area that is headed a small populated area or a numerous one?

[HURAKAN]

Is the area that is headed a small populated area or a numerous one?

[KWT]

So it looks fairly well populated in the area that is heading towards, sure hope it starts to weaken soon otherwise we are going to have a bit of a disaster on our hands...

[Pedro Fernández]

Wow... Incredible............. I had never thought NARGIS could became so strong !!

[HURAKAN]

Wow... Incredible............. I had never thought NARGIS could became so strong !!

It seems that what most affected Nargis was the fact that was almost stationary for 24 hours and upwelling brought to the surface cold water. Right after the storm began to move, its organization improved dramatically.