Major Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak May 10 and 11th

[6SpeedTA95]

That MDT area is huge.

We're about 20 mins away from an update.

[HarlequinBoy]

I'm not doubting Little Rock because they always do a stellar job, but I do seem some rotation on the Newton County storm.

[6SpeedTA95]

Wow...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... p?sector=3

Check out the cape of 5000+ and LI's of -14 in south central oklahoma

[CrazyC83]

Wow...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... p?sector=3

Check out the cape of 5000+ and LI's of -14 in south central oklahoma

That's just insane. Any cell there could go into Greensburg territory. It seems initiation is the only limiting factor, that is the only thing IMO that could prevent a high risk from being issued.

[JonathanBelles]

Which page are you all looking at?

[6SpeedTA95]

Which page are you all looking at?

Click the link I posted, then click on the thermodynamic fields and then you can choose a host of cape options and the lifted index.

[6SpeedTA95]

The storm due east of mcalester is taking on a decidedly evil look...it looks like its trying to develop some vnotching and rotation.

[CrazyC83]

2000Z: no HIGH, but the MDT expanded north and west

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 101955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK...NERN TX...SRN
MO...AR...MUCH OF TN...MS...AL AND WRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND
SERN STATES...

...CNRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY...

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S SRN SC WWD THROUGH CNTRL GA AND
CNTRL AL WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL MS...S
CNTRL AR THEN NWWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.
DRYLINE FROM NEAR DEL RIO NWD TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS TO SWRN OK IS
MIXING EWD. A LARGE AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR EXISTS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT FROM THE SE U.S. LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. MID TO UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EXIST
SOUTH OF THE E-W BOUNDARY BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
MLCAPE FROM 2000 J/KG OVER THE SERN STATES TO 3500 J/KG OVER PARTS
OF ERN TX AND SERN OK AND SW AR.

PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER THE LOWER AND
MID MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ELEVATED...BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE MUCAPE ARE SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE 18Z RAOB DATA STILL SHOWED A CAP TO SURFACE BASED STORMS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO WARM
FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER AR AND ERN OK MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF
HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY DISCRETE
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXING EAST INTO
ERN OK INTO N CNTRL AND NERN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE
MCSS AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND
SERN STATES. THE STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND
FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELL AND LEWP STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.


...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...

A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS GA AND
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS AL AND MS AS
THE CAP WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE IN THIS REGION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINING WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50
KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT PRESENCE OF VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW LEVEL
HELICITY WILL INCREASE FROM W-E ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCE
EAST. THIS WILL POSE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND INTO THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/10/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2002Z (4:02PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[6SpeedTA95]

wtfgraphic on the convective update

[HarlequinBoy]

The entire state of Arkansas is in the Tornado hatched, along with southern MO, west TN, 2/3 of MS, east OK, ne TX, and NW Alabama.

[HarlequinBoy]

wtfgraphic on the convective update

Yeah, I saw that. Weird.

[6SpeedTA95]

Tornadic threat shifted decidedly west

[Ed Mahmoud]

88ºF (31ºC) near Crawford, TX, where sometime today Jenna Bush is getting married. I hope the dime sized hail last night provided some excitement at the Bush ranch, but imagine what stories former President George W Bush can tell his grand-children if baseball sized hail falls at his daughter's wedding. Possible, as the dryline hasn't passed yet, as the dewpoint is still 72ºF (22º).


Radar suggests the dryline is still about an hour or two from Crawford.


RUC forecast suggests cap when dryline passes will probably be too strong for thunderstorm development, and low level winds will be a tad weak, and cloud bases a bit too high for tornadoes even if a storm can develop, but very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong speed shear in the area of greatest instability means damaging downburst winds and large hail would be a possibility.




My unofficial estimate, only a 15% chance of a storm at the ranch, but a 90% chance of severe wind or hail if one can bust the cap.

[6SpeedTA95]

Anyone else seeing this goofy POS as their main conv page?

[HarlequinBoy]

Tornadic threat shifted decidedly west

Yeah, a bit. Mostly it looks like they took out the eastward extension into AL/GA.



Shreveport, Little Rock, Memphis, Huntsville, Jackson MS and TN, Birmingham and Tulsa!

[6SpeedTA95]

MDT has been expanded west that makes sense based on all the data that came out about noon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone else seeing this goofy POS as their main conv page?

yes.

[6SpeedTA95]

Anyone else seeing this goofy POS as their main conv page?

yes.

Someone got in a hurry lol

[6SpeedTA95]

Storm going up fast over arkansas city kansas