
Doesn't get very strong and then weakens soon..but at least it's moving forward in time,has it developing in about 144 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144s.gif
That last image is from the 06z which is currently being released
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boca wrote:I'm starting to notice some popcorn convection developing down in the SW Caribbean.Maybe thats a sign of what the GFS is trying to latch onto.The 12zGFS run is just starting I have to go to work so I can't look at it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
RL3AO wrote:Jeff Masters Blog
Possible development in the Eastern Pacific late next week
Recent runs of the long-range GFS model and ECMWF model have been predicting the possible formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm in the the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Guatemala, around May 28-29. The ECMWF model has been very consistent with its prediction the past two days, but the GFS had the storm forming in the Western Caribbean during some of its runs. Little details like which ocean a potential tropical storm might form in point to the unreliability of these models at such long lead times, and we should view these forecasts skeptically. Still, these models do indicate a northward movement of the jet stream and substantial relaxation in wind shear over the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean next week. It is common to see May tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific, and it would not be a surprise to see something develop there next week. At this point, I'd discount the GFS predictions of something forming in the Western Caribbean. The GFS model has been inconsistent, and May tropical storms are uncommon in the Western Caribbean. The tropical waves that spawn tropical storms are typically too far south to spawn something in the Caribbean in May.
KWT wrote:The 12z once again develops a low pressure system around 168hrs (maybe a little earlier but its hard to tell on the maps I've seen because of the broad nature of the circulation.) On this run the low goes on to beocme fairly strong by recent runs standards and hits Cuba in the lower 1000's then pushes NE from there. I'd guess that would mean a strong tropical storm though usual caveats would have to be applied of course!
olddude wrote:Yep, no doubt we can use the rainfall. Local Miami mets were suggesting the low could move our way in the next few days.
HURRICANELONNY wrote:The local MET woman on fox mentioned this morning of a tropical disturbance for around June 1. They must not have much to talk about if there looking that far out. Climo suggest any system that early to head west in the gulf. The GFS will change to the west if it even happens.
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