Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Meso]

00z


Doesn't get very strong and then weakens soon..but at least it's moving forward in time,has it developing in about 144 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144s.gif

That last image is from the 06z which is currently being released

[gatorcane]

It would appear that the chances of this GFS low developing in the Western Caribbean seem to be on the rise. Today's run is the first time I see it showing a low forming within 7 days. Previously we had to look 9+ days out to see it.

At 174 hours, we see the low starting to organize in the SW Caribbean. It moves NNW into the Western Caribbean slowly over the course of a few days and then eventually GFS loses the low but it looks to bring welcome downpours for Southern Florida. Let's see if the GFS is going to stay consistent or not over the next several runs:

[boca]

I'm starting to notice some popcorn convection developing down in the SW Caribbean.Maybe thats a sign of what the GFS is trying to latch onto.The 12zGFS run is just starting I have to go to work so I can't look at it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

I'm starting to notice some popcorn convection developing down in the SW Caribbean.Maybe thats a sign of what the GFS is trying to latch onto.The 12zGFS run is just starting I have to go to work so I can't look at it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Boca, it's very possible, because the GFS seems to want to keep a low around the SW Caribbean even over the next few days. The pressures across the SW Caribbean are continuing to fall gradually as well (which is of no surprise though). Climatology also indicates this area is becoming more favorable for development as we move into June.

[RL3AO]

Jeff Masters Blog

Possible development in the Eastern Pacific late next week
Recent runs of the long-range GFS model and ECMWF model have been predicting the possible formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm in the the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Guatemala, around May 28-29. The ECMWF model has been very consistent with its prediction the past two days, but the GFS had the storm forming in the Western Caribbean during some of its runs. Little details like which ocean a potential tropical storm might form in point to the unreliability of these models at such long lead times, and we should view these forecasts skeptically. Still, these models do indicate a northward movement of the jet stream and substantial relaxation in wind shear over the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean next week. It is common to see May tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific, and it would not be a surprise to see something develop there next week. At this point, I'd discount the GFS predictions of something forming in the Western Caribbean. The GFS model has been inconsistent, and May tropical storms are uncommon in the Western Caribbean. The tropical waves that spawn tropical storms are typically too far south to spawn something in the Caribbean in May.

[gatorcane]

Jeff Masters Blog

Possible development in the Eastern Pacific late next week
Recent runs of the long-range GFS model and ECMWF model have been predicting the possible formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm in the the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Guatemala, around May 28-29. The ECMWF model has been very consistent with its prediction the past two days, but the GFS had the storm forming in the Western Caribbean during some of its runs. Little details like which ocean a potential tropical storm might form in point to the unreliability of these models at such long lead times, and we should view these forecasts skeptically. Still, these models do indicate a northward movement of the jet stream and substantial relaxation in wind shear over the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean next week. It is common to see May tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific, and it would not be a surprise to see something develop there next week. At this point, I'd discount the GFS predictions of something forming in the Western Caribbean. The GFS model has been inconsistent, and May tropical storms are uncommon in the Western Caribbean. The tropical waves that spawn tropical storms are typically too far south to spawn something in the Caribbean in May.

I would have to agree with him that I would wager that if something forms its going to be in the EPAC. Alot of energy is starting to gather now in the EPAC as we speak and it would seem that this area has potential for tropical storm formation.

[KWT]

It may well be the case that the same area of energy spawns 2 tropical systems, probably the most likely one to occur would be in the EPAC but the GFS has constantly been trying to lower pressure in the Caribbean instead of the EPAC and so I wouldn't be surprised if some left over energy eventually becomes a system as well probably in early June.

Certainly reaching the intersting time of the year!

[gatorcane]

GFS 06z MSLP at 144 hours:

[KWT]

The 12z once again develops a low pressure system around 168hrs (maybe a little earlier but its hard to tell on the maps I've seen because of the broad nature of the circulation.) On this run the low goes on to beocme fairly strong by recent runs standards and hits Cuba in the lower 1000's then pushes NE from there. I'd guess that would mean a strong tropical storm though usual caveats would have to be applied of course!

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z once again develops a low pressure system around 168hrs (maybe a little earlier but its hard to tell on the maps I've seen because of the broad nature of the circulation.) On this run the low goes on to beocme fairly strong by recent runs standards and hits Cuba in the lower 1000's then pushes NE from there. I'd guess that would mean a strong tropical storm though usual caveats would have to be applied of course!

I like 850 mb vorticity because it is easier to track the features when they are weak/subtle.

[Ivanhater]

Yep 12z continues the development of at least a tropical storm ..starting to take shape in about 6 days..here is 276 hours..



Here it is in the straits of Florida..



Now track will obviously change this far out. it has showed scenarios from the western gulf to east of Florida so plenty of time to look at track but something will likely try to form down there in a few days...

[Ed Mahmoud]

South and Central Florida need a good rain if we don't want to repeat the wildfire scenario that postponed the then Pepsi 400 (formerly the Firecracker 400, now the Coke Zero 400) NASCAR race from Daytona on the 4th of July weekend that happened in 1998.

[olddude]

Yep, no doubt we can use the rainfall. Local Miami mets were suggesting the low could move our way in the next few days.

[JonathanBelles]

Yay possible TS on Graduation... :/

[gatorcane]

Yep, no doubt we can use the rainfall. Local Miami mets were suggesting the low could move our way in the next few days.

I don't think so.

NWS Miami does not even mention this low...except for the possibility of cyclogenesis off of the east coast of Florida later this weekend that will push a backdoor front through -- but not tropical in nature.

I bet that is the "low" they were talking about not the GFS tropical low.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The local MET woman on fox mentioned this morning of a tropical disturbance for around June 1. They must not have much to talk about if there looking that far out. Climo suggest any system that early to head west in the gulf. The GFS will change to the west if it even happens.

[gatorcane]

The local MET woman on fox mentioned this morning of a tropical disturbance for around June 1. They must not have much to talk about if there looking that far out. Climo suggest any system that early to head west in the gulf. The GFS will change to the west if it even happens.

Personally I don't think any MET should be talking about a tropical disturbance for the Jun 1st timeframe when its more than 10+ days out, if it even happens. While true the GFS solution is becoming an increasing possibility, it is by no means set in stone and is very likely to change from run to run. Not only that, but the low is incredibly weak and may not even be more than a depression if anything. Note the Euro puts the system into the open waters of the EPAC far, far away from Florida. The Euro solution is more feasible given climatology.

[HURRICANELONNY]

She only said needed rain from a tropical disturbance. I doubt anything more then a depression unless it heads into the EPAC.

[JonathanBelles]

The local met here also hinted to something from the tropics.

[Cyclenall]

What I notice is the same thing that happens every year around this time, the models produce the south-west Caribbean storm for the early June period.

I thought the models don't show strength very well so I wouldn't say it's very weak. It was showing the same for Dean when it was a category 4.