WTNT80 EGRR 240553
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.05.2008
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.3N 95.3W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.05.2008 9.3N 95.3W WEAK
00UTC 27.05.2008 10.0N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.05.2008 10.0N 91.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.05.2008 10.2N 91.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2008 10.0N 91.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2008 10.8N 92.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2008 11.2N 93.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.05.2008 11.8N 94.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
TOO 240553
Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
Spooky stuff (potentially) for the East Pac. Although extrapolating out, a continued W-NW motion might keep it from ever landfalling in Mexico.
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
Supporting the East Pac instead of Caribbean basin, is a pre-existing blob in the East Pac, and not in the Caribbean.


0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
Evil Jeremy wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:Consistent can be consistently wrong. Bastardi got burned on early season Caribbean development last year because the Euro predicted it 3 or 4 runs in a row before backing off of it.
There is a difference though with 3-4 runs and 3-4 days of runs. This is very consistent.
It actually has been consistent for about a week now.
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Supporting the East Pac instead of Caribbean basin, is a pre-existing blob in the East Pac, and not in the Caribbean.
Watch the Caribbean burst in convection by early to mid next week, until then nothing.
0 likes
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
The consistency of the GFS showing some sort of storm is starting to catch my attention. Not concerned about this until we actually have convection in the Carib. but with other models indicating development we'll have to keep an eye out. I guess it's that time of year again!
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
For what it's worth, the ECMWF also develops a surface low in the same region within 120-144 hours. This is an identical time frame as the operational GFS and some of its ensembles.
ECMWF around ~144 hours
ECMWF around ~144 hours
0 likes
-
- Category 4
- Posts: 926
- Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 3:35 pm
- Location: Central Florida
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
Excerpt from todays HPC extended forecast.
TROPICS
GFS SERIES HAVE BEEN INDICATING WRN CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR OVER A WEEK AT LONGER RANGES INDICATING INCREASING FAVORABLE
CONDS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST OVERNIGHT RUNS AND TODAYS
12Z RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOCATIONAL CLUSTERING CONT THIS TREND. 00Z ECMWF
ALSO DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA BUT NOT TO THE DEVELOPED
EXTENT OF THE GFS. CMC ALSO LIKES THIS GENERAL REGION BUT PLACES
ITS EMPHASIS ON THE PAC SIDE. AFTN FINAL PROGS WILL DEPICT A GFS
ENS MEAN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST DAYS 5-7
THU-SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
lebron23 wrote:When does the 18z roll?
Three hours or so (for the GFS).
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
Rainband wrote:no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.
If something forms that could remotely affect your side of Florida you will not be able to afford the gas to go on vacation..
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
I am leaving on the 29th and btw yes I couldhial2 wrote:Rainband wrote:no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.
If something forms that could remotely affect your side of Florida you will not be able to afford the gas to go on vacation..

0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
From hurricane track. Tropics not an issue this weekend. Obivously the atlantic hurricane season is more than a week away but it is still possible to have tropical storm formation outside of the season. At least for the up coming holiday weekend I see nothing to suggest that we will have andy issues form either basin. Some of the longer range modles suggest a more active period coming up later next week centered around Centrial America in either the Pacific or the Atlantic or both. This would not be surprising considering the time of year we are in and a more favorable upper level pattern setting up in the coming days. 

Last edited by Eyewall on Sat May 24, 2008 10:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Well the GFS is still going for what is a very interesting set-up, history shows that at this time of year tracks can be really unpredictable until the jet picks up the systems, conditions can be slack below say 15-20N at this time of year.
GFS and the ECM are similar though the GDFs is tending to strengthen the system it forms a little more then the ECM which has it interacting with land thorughout most of the LP's life (the only time it really gets away is around 216hr chart that Meso shows.
However we certainly can't rule out the UKMO idea and in some ways given the plentiful of convection still present in the EPAC I find it more possible that a TC will for out there....however now both the GFS and ECM are suggesting on a TC forming in the Sw Caribbean...
Once again as I've said before the one thing the models all agree on is some sort of tropical cyclone will try and form in either the Atlantic or EPAC basin.
GFS and the ECM are similar though the GDFs is tending to strengthen the system it forms a little more then the ECM which has it interacting with land thorughout most of the LP's life (the only time it really gets away is around 216hr chart that Meso shows.
However we certainly can't rule out the UKMO idea and in some ways given the plentiful of convection still present in the EPAC I find it more possible that a TC will for out there....however now both the GFS and ECM are suggesting on a TC forming in the Sw Caribbean...
Once again as I've said before the one thing the models all agree on is some sort of tropical cyclone will try and form in either the Atlantic or EPAC basin.
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
HPC long range discussion notes the models have been sniffingb something
TROPICS
GFS SERIES HAVE BEEN INDICATING WRN CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR OVER A WEEK AT LONGER RANGES INDICATING INCREASING FAVORABLE
CONDS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST OVERNIGHT RUNS AND TODAYS
12Z RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOCATIONAL CLUSTERING CONT THIS TREND. 00Z ECMWF
ALSO DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA BUT NOT TO THE DEVELOPED
EXTENT OF THE GFS. CMC ALSO LIKES THIS GENERAL REGION BUT PLACES
ITS EMPHASIS ON THE PAC SIDE. AFTN FINAL PROGS WILL DEPICT A GFS
ENS MEAN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST DAYS 5-7
THU-SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
0 likes
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5904
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
IMO if anything does form it will occur in the EPAC. I'm not buying into the GFS yet....MGC
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
Rainband wrote:I am leaving on the 29th and btw yes I couldhial2 wrote:Rainband wrote:no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.
If something forms that could remotely affect your side of Florida you will not be able to afford the gas to go on vacation..
I stand, or in this case sit,corrected...

0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
That's kinda what I'm thinking, it's obviously more favorable over there with all that moisture. It's dry as a bone throughout the Caribbean.MGC wrote:IMO if anything does form it will occur in the EPAC. I'm not buying into the GFS yet....MGC
0 likes
Re: GFS (Western Caribbean) Early Season Development?
I agree. If something comes to Florida this year you will not be able to afford the gas to leave!
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: alan1961, DunedinDave, Google Adsense [Bot], HurricaneFan, jlauderdal, Kludge, O Town, SootyTern, Sunnydays, TampaWxLurker, Texoz and 96 guests