Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Ed Mahmoud]

Spooky stuff (potentially) for the East Pac. Although extrapolating out, a continued W-NW motion might keep it from ever landfalling in Mexico.

WTNT80 EGRR 240553



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.05.2008



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.3N 95.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.05.2008 9.3N 95.3W WEAK

00UTC 27.05.2008 10.0N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.05.2008 10.0N 91.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.05.2008 10.2N 91.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.05.2008 10.0N 91.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.05.2008 10.8N 92.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.05.2008 11.2N 93.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 30.05.2008 11.8N 94.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 240553

[Ed Mahmoud]

Supporting the East Pac instead of Caribbean basin, is a pre-existing blob in the East Pac, and not in the Caribbean.

[NDG]

Consistent can be consistently wrong. Bastardi got burned on early season Caribbean development last year because the Euro predicted it 3 or 4 runs in a row before backing off of it.

There is a difference though with 3-4 runs and 3-4 days of runs. This is very consistent.

It actually has been consistent for about a week now.

[NDG]

Supporting the East Pac instead of Caribbean basin, is a pre-existing blob in the East Pac, and not in the Caribbean.

Watch the Caribbean burst in convection by early to mid next week, until then nothing.

[PTrackerLA]

The consistency of the GFS showing some sort of storm is starting to catch my attention. Not concerned about this until we actually have convection in the Carib. but with other models indicating development we'll have to keep an eye out. I guess it's that time of year again!

[MiamiensisWx]

For what it's worth, the ECMWF also develops a surface low in the same region within 120-144 hours. This is an identical time frame as the operational GFS and some of its ensembles.

ECMWF around ~144 hours

[flwxwatcher]

Excerpt from todays HPC extended forecast.

TROPICS
GFS SERIES HAVE BEEN INDICATING WRN CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR OVER A WEEK AT LONGER RANGES INDICATING INCREASING FAVORABLE
CONDS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST OVERNIGHT RUNS AND TODAYS
12Z RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOCATIONAL CLUSTERING CONT THIS TREND. 00Z ECMWF
ALSO DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA BUT NOT TO THE DEVELOPED
EXTENT OF THE GFS. CMC ALSO LIKES THIS GENERAL REGION BUT PLACES
ITS EMPHASIS ON THE PAC SIDE. AFTN FINAL PROGS WILL DEPICT A GFS
ENS MEAN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST DAYS 5-7
THU-SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

[Rainband]

no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.

[lebron23]

When does the 18z roll?

[RL3AO]

When does the 18z roll?

Three hours or so (for the GFS).

[hial2]

no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.

If something forms that could remotely affect your side of Florida you will not be able to afford the gas to go on vacation..

[Rainband]

no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.

If something forms that could remotely affect your side of Florida you will not be able to afford the gas to go on vacation..

I am leaving on the 29th and btw yes I could

[Meso]

[Eyewall]

From hurricane track. Tropics not an issue this weekend. Obivously the atlantic hurricane season is more than a week away but it is still possible to have tropical storm formation outside of the season. At least for the up coming holiday weekend I see nothing to suggest that we will have andy issues form either basin. Some of the longer range modles suggest a more active period coming up later next week centered around Centrial America in either the Pacific or the Atlantic or both. This would not be surprising considering the time of year we are in and a more favorable upper level pattern setting up in the coming days.

[KWT]

Well the GFS is still going for what is a very interesting set-up, history shows that at this time of year tracks can be really unpredictable until the jet picks up the systems, conditions can be slack below say 15-20N at this time of year.

GFS and the ECM are similar though the GDFs is tending to strengthen the system it forms a little more then the ECM which has it interacting with land thorughout most of the LP's life (the only time it really gets away is around 216hr chart that Meso shows.

However we certainly can't rule out the UKMO idea and in some ways given the plentiful of convection still present in the EPAC I find it more possible that a TC will for out there....however now both the GFS and ECM are suggesting on a TC forming in the Sw Caribbean...

Once again as I've said before the one thing the models all agree on is some sort of tropical cyclone will try and form in either the Atlantic or EPAC basin.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HPC long range discussion notes the models have been sniffingb something

TROPICS
GFS SERIES HAVE BEEN INDICATING WRN CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR OVER A WEEK AT LONGER RANGES INDICATING INCREASING FAVORABLE
CONDS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST OVERNIGHT RUNS AND TODAYS
12Z RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOCATIONAL CLUSTERING CONT THIS TREND. 00Z ECMWF
ALSO DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA BUT NOT TO THE DEVELOPED
EXTENT OF THE GFS. CMC ALSO LIKES THIS GENERAL REGION BUT PLACES
ITS EMPHASIS ON THE PAC SIDE. AFTN FINAL PROGS WILL DEPICT A GFS
ENS MEAN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST DAYS 5-7
THU-SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

[MGC]

IMO if anything does form it will occur in the EPAC. I'm not buying into the GFS yet....MGC

[hial2]

no storms allowed in this neck of the woods. Tony and I and my Mom are going on vacation.

If something forms that could remotely affect your side of Florida you will not be able to afford the gas to go on vacation..

I am leaving on the 29th and btw yes I could

I stand, or in this case sit,corrected...

[Opal storm]

IMO if anything does form it will occur in the EPAC. I'm not buying into the GFS yet....MGC

That's kinda what I'm thinking, it's obviously more favorable over there with all that moisture. It's dry as a bone throughout the Caribbean.

[Zadok]

I agree. If something comes to Florida this year you will not be able to afford the gas to leave!