Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[lebron23]

:uarrow: That would be really interesting!!!

Scary too...if 2 storms enter the gulf!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Like they couldn't make up their minds almost.

Dumb question, zigzag line that runs through the high pressure to the Northern Gulf, what is that supposed to represent? The ridge axis?

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow: That would be really interesting!!!

Scary too...if 2 storms enter the gulf!

Two storms unlikely to form that closely.

[NDG]

Talking about phantom storms, I am surprised nobody has noticed the phantom super storm that the euro has been coming out with since last week in the Arabian Sea, it keeps putting development off for day seven of its forecast, with nothing panning out yet, now that's what I call a flaw.

[gatorcane]

I'm with Derek here, I'm starting to doubt the global models with this Western Caribbean system. An EPAC system weakening over Central America with some remnant moisture streaming north into the GOM is more likely IMHO.

[cycloneye]

This image is the closest you can get to see where the possible tropical activity may start.



Here is a loop of the same area.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm with Derek here, I'm starting to doubt the global models with this Western Caribbean system. An EPAC system weakening over Central America with some remnant moisture streaming north into the GOM is more likely IMHO.

I'm not sure that you can doubt when the Caribbean convection diminishing in the short term is expected and not unforseen. The real start will start tomorrow, and it will be a slow one.

Don't focus on the short term.

[RL3AO]

TWO Alert scale v2.0.

Like or dislike?

[HurricaneRobert]

Talking about phantom storms, I am surprised nobody has noticed the phantom super storm that the euro has been coming out with since last week in the Arabian Sea, it keeps putting development off for day seven of its forecast, with nothing panning out yet, now that's what I call a flaw.

That's not a phantom storm. Something seems to be organizing in the eastern Arabian Sea, but there's no invest and 97A was dropped.

[Cyclone1]

TWO Alert scale v2.0.

Like or dislike?

I like it.

[JonathanBelles]

Post the other TWO scale.

[RL3AO]

Old

[boca]

I do see a little rotation in the clouds in the SW Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[JonathanBelles]

I like the new better.

[RL3AO]

If it helps any, the next Quikscat pass will catch the western SW Caribbean and the area of interest in the EPac.

[Cyclone1]

I do see a little rotation in the clouds in the SW Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

I noticed that, also. Probably nothing, quikscat will tell the tale, though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IR2 loop really seems to suggest a low level turning East of Panama and Nicaragua

[george_r_1961]

TWO Alert scale v2.0.

Like or dislike?

I like it.

Ditto! Great idea!

[boca]

IR2 loop really seems to suggest a low level turning East of Panama and Nicaragua

I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.

[JonathanBelles]

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Just what I am seeing. Blue is the area that I think needs bear watching. Yellow is where I think it is of greatest need for watching.