Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

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lebron23
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Re:

#801 Postby lebron23 » Mon May 26, 2008 8:37 pm

HURAKAN wrote::uarrow: That would be really interesting!!!


Scary too...if 2 storms enter the gulf! :eek:
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#802 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon May 26, 2008 8:53 pm

lebron23 wrote:Image


Like they couldn't make up their minds almost.

Dumb question, zigzag line that runs through the high pressure to the Northern Gulf, what is that supposed to represent? The ridge axis?
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Re: Re:

#803 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon May 26, 2008 8:54 pm

lebron23 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote::uarrow: That would be really interesting!!!


Scary too...if 2 storms enter the gulf! :eek:



Two storms unlikely to form that closely.
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Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#804 Postby NDG » Mon May 26, 2008 8:55 pm

Talking about phantom storms, I am surprised nobody has noticed the phantom super storm that the euro has been coming out with since last week in the Arabian Sea, it keeps putting development off for day seven of its forecast, with nothing panning out yet, now that's what I call a flaw.
Image
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#805 Postby gatorcane » Mon May 26, 2008 8:57 pm

I'm with Derek here, I'm starting to doubt the global models with this Western Caribbean system. An EPAC system weakening over Central America with some remnant moisture streaming north into the GOM is more likely IMHO.
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Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#806 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2008 8:59 pm

This image is the closest you can get to see where the possible tropical activity may start.

Image

Here is a loop of the same area.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
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Re:

#807 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon May 26, 2008 9:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:I'm with Derek here, I'm starting to doubt the global models with this Western Caribbean system. An EPAC system weakening over Central America with some remnant moisture streaming north into the GOM is more likely IMHO.

I'm not sure that you can doubt when the Caribbean convection diminishing in the short term is expected and not unforseen. The real start will start tomorrow, and it will be a slow one.

Don't focus on the short term.
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#808 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 26, 2008 9:10 pm

TWO Alert scale v2.0.

Like or dislike?

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#809 Postby HurricaneRobert » Mon May 26, 2008 9:12 pm

NDG wrote:Talking about phantom storms, I am surprised nobody has noticed the phantom super storm that the euro has been coming out with since last week in the Arabian Sea, it keeps putting development off for day seven of its forecast, with nothing panning out yet, now that's what I call a flaw.
Image


That's not a phantom storm. Something seems to be organizing in the eastern Arabian Sea, but there's no invest and 97A was dropped.
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Re:

#810 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon May 26, 2008 9:14 pm

RL3AO wrote:TWO Alert scale v2.0.

Like or dislike?

Image


I like it.
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#811 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon May 26, 2008 9:16 pm

Post the other TWO scale.
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#812 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 26, 2008 9:17 pm

Old

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#813 Postby boca » Mon May 26, 2008 9:21 pm

I do see a little rotation in the clouds in the SW Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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#814 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon May 26, 2008 9:23 pm

I like the new better.
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#815 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 26, 2008 9:23 pm

If it helps any, the next Quikscat pass will catch the western SW Caribbean and the area of interest in the EPac.
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Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#816 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon May 26, 2008 9:25 pm

boca wrote:I do see a little rotation in the clouds in the SW Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg


I noticed that, also. Probably nothing, quikscat will tell the tale, though.
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Re: Re:

#818 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon May 26, 2008 9:43 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:TWO Alert scale v2.0.

Like or dislike?

Image


I like it.


Ditto! Great idea!
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Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#819 Postby boca » Mon May 26, 2008 9:44 pm



I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.
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Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#820 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon May 26, 2008 9:46 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Image

Just what I am seeing. Blue is the area that I think needs bear watching. Yellow is where I think it is of greatest need for watching.
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