EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[WmE]

It seems like it's forming a CDO. Should be upgraded to a TS, probably 40kts soon.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a T 3.0/3.0

[physicx07]

It does look that way, but I remember storms past that looked very convincing like that, and then the structure diminished and it was apparently just a coincidence or something that it looked so well developed at that moment. It looks like it's getting close to land, like maybe 40km or so, so I think land interaction should have to now slow it down if it were trying to strengthen very fast

[Thunder44]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291131
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
500 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...

AT 5 AM PDT...1200 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 200
MILES...350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...11.3 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[Thunder44]

Still a TD on the 5am PDT advisory.

[Evil Jeremy]

AT 5 AM PDT...1200 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA.

[Chacor]

Took them long enough!

[Derek Ortt]

about 9-12 hours lead time for Nicaragua. That is the same as France gives for a HURRICANE (for the record, what preps for a low end TS take more than 9-12 hours?)

[cycloneye]

First Visible of soon to be Alma!

[KWT]

Shouldn't be too long before this is a tropical storm IMO, I'd put it at 40kts right now based on the strcuture but it may well be developing pretty quickly at this point, indeed looking at cycloneye image it could well be undergoing RI, does very much look like a CDO is currently forming over the center...

[Derek Ortt]

its likely a 45kT storm now

[Chacor]

Looks like SHIPS did well with the RI on the system.

[KWT]

I sure hope this doesn't pull a humberto on us, we are sort of in uncharted waters because these systems never really landfall this far east so it will be interesting to see what happens.
Really good looking system now!

[Thunder44]

T-Numbers from overnight:

29/0545 UTC 10.7N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E

[Chacor]

The 09z discussion noted the T2.5s but did not upgrade then.

[cycloneye]

The very latest T Numbers:

29/1145 UTC 11.3N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Thunder44]

"01E.ALMA" is now coming up on NRL:


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[cycloneye]

Here is Alma!


WHXX01 KMIA 291229
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALMA (EP012008) 20080529 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080529 1200 080530 0000 080530 1200 080531 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 86.7W 12.6N 87.2W 14.0N 87.9W 15.2N 88.8W
BAMD 11.3N 86.7W 13.0N 87.6W 14.4N 88.9W 15.4N 90.5W
BAMM 11.3N 86.7W 13.0N 87.2W 14.4N 88.1W 15.6N 89.1W
LBAR 11.3N 86.7W 12.9N 87.4W 15.0N 88.6W 16.9N 89.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080531 1200 080601 1200 080602 1200 080603 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 89.9W 16.5N 92.2W 16.2N 95.0W 15.4N 98.0W
BAMD 15.6N 91.8W 14.9N 94.0W 13.9N 97.2W 13.9N 101.0W
BAMM 16.2N 90.2W 16.1N 92.2W 15.5N 95.9W 14.8N 100.3W
LBAR 18.2N 91.0W 19.2N 92.6W 19.2N 94.3W 19.7N 96.3W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 86.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 86.5W DIRM12 = 354DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 87.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM

[Chacor]

EP, 01, 2008052912, , BEST, 0, 113N, 867W, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 90, 90, 60, 1008, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ALMA, M,

(01E, 12z 29 May 2008, Alma 11.3N 86.7W, 35 kts, 1001 mb, TS, radius of 34 kt winds - 30 nm NW 90 nm NE 90 nm SE 60 nm SW, outermost isobar 1008 mb)

[KWT]

Yep not at all surprising, it ooks really good for a tropical storm I have to say I'm tempted to say it is developing very quickly, only land interaction may slow this system development down which is a good thing.

Still Tropical Storm Alma here we come, first of the EPAC season and it won't be the last either.