EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: EPAC: TD 01E=TS Warning for Costa Rica & El Salvador
It does look that way, but I remember storms past that looked very convincing like that, and then the structure diminished and it was apparently just a coincidence or something that it looked so well developed at that moment. It looks like it's getting close to land, like maybe 40km or so, so I think land interaction should have to now slow it down if it were trying to strengthen very fast
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Re: EPac: Tropical Depression ONE-E advisories
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291131
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
500 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
AT 5 AM PDT...1200 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 200
MILES...350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...11.3 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
WTPZ31 KNHC 291131
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
500 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
AT 5 AM PDT...1200 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 200
MILES...350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...11.3 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
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Re: EPAC: TD 01E=TS Warning for Costa Rica & El Salvador
Still a TD on the 5am PDT advisory.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Shouldn't be too long before this is a tropical storm IMO, I'd put it at 40kts right now based on the strcuture but it may well be developing pretty quickly at this point, indeed looking at cycloneye image it could well be undergoing RI, does very much look like a CDO is currently forming over the center...
Last edited by KWT on Thu May 29, 2008 7:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: TD 01E=TS Warning for Costa Rica & El Salvador
T-Numbers from overnight:
29/0545 UTC 10.7N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E
29/0545 UTC 10.7N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: TD 01E=TS Warning for Costa Rica & El Salvador
The very latest T Numbers:
29/1145 UTC 11.3N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific Ocean
29/1145 UTC 11.3N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific Ocean
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Re: EPAC: TD 01E=TS Warning for Costa Rica & El Salvador
Last edited by Thunder44 on Thu May 29, 2008 7:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145288
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: TD 01E=TS Warning for Costa Rica & El Salvador
Here is Alma!
WHXX01 KMIA 291229
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC THU MAY 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALMA (EP012008) 20080529 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080529 1200 080530 0000 080530 1200 080531 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 86.7W 12.6N 87.2W 14.0N 87.9W 15.2N 88.8W
BAMD 11.3N 86.7W 13.0N 87.6W 14.4N 88.9W 15.4N 90.5W
BAMM 11.3N 86.7W 13.0N 87.2W 14.4N 88.1W 15.6N 89.1W
LBAR 11.3N 86.7W 12.9N 87.4W 15.0N 88.6W 16.9N 89.9W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080531 1200 080601 1200 080602 1200 080603 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 89.9W 16.5N 92.2W 16.2N 95.0W 15.4N 98.0W
BAMD 15.6N 91.8W 14.9N 94.0W 13.9N 97.2W 13.9N 101.0W
BAMM 16.2N 90.2W 16.1N 92.2W 15.5N 95.9W 14.8N 100.3W
LBAR 18.2N 91.0W 19.2N 92.6W 19.2N 94.3W 19.7N 96.3W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 86.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 86.5W DIRM12 = 354DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 87.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM
WHXX01 KMIA 291229
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC THU MAY 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALMA (EP012008) 20080529 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080529 1200 080530 0000 080530 1200 080531 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 86.7W 12.6N 87.2W 14.0N 87.9W 15.2N 88.8W
BAMD 11.3N 86.7W 13.0N 87.6W 14.4N 88.9W 15.4N 90.5W
BAMM 11.3N 86.7W 13.0N 87.2W 14.4N 88.1W 15.6N 89.1W
LBAR 11.3N 86.7W 12.9N 87.4W 15.0N 88.6W 16.9N 89.9W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080531 1200 080601 1200 080602 1200 080603 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 89.9W 16.5N 92.2W 16.2N 95.0W 15.4N 98.0W
BAMD 15.6N 91.8W 14.9N 94.0W 13.9N 97.2W 13.9N 101.0W
BAMM 16.2N 90.2W 16.1N 92.2W 15.5N 95.9W 14.8N 100.3W
LBAR 18.2N 91.0W 19.2N 92.6W 19.2N 94.3W 19.7N 96.3W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 86.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 86.5W DIRM12 = 354DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 87.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM
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Yep not at all surprising, it ooks really good for a tropical storm I have to say I'm tempted to say it is developing very quickly, only land interaction may slow this system development down which is a good thing.
Still Tropical Storm Alma here we come, first of the EPAC season and it won't be the last either.
Still Tropical Storm Alma here we come, first of the EPAC season and it won't be the last either.
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