Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

[Vortex]

Various models bring an area of low pressure/disturbed weather west this week originating from what appears to be the interaction of a mid/upper level low and a triopical wave this morning just to the N of PR. As ridging takes hold to the north and shear lessens across the western atlantic this *may* become an interesting feature mid week as it nears the Bahamas. More later as additional guidance comes in..

[Vortex]

00Z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[boca]

I think if something tries to get organized it will move NE due to that trough exiting the S Carolina coastline.

[Vortex]

Boca,

Initiallly next 24-48 hours there may be a tendency for this developing system to have the moisture pulled more NW as the trough exits the SE coast. Beyond 48 hours ridging may not only send this develeping low/wave further west towards the bahamas but the shear may also drop off based on the forecasted synoptics. Either way I think a convection is likely to really blossom over this area as it heads west and may bring locally heavy rains to the bahamas late this week.

[Vortex]

12 Z NAM Loop shows this area fairly nice as it treks WNW the next few days.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Frank2]

I just don't see that - it moves the area very slowly then stalls in it the last frame as it is pulled NE towards the trough that is currently moving off the SE coast...

[Vortex]

At H+84 Appears to become a classic ULL in connection with some of the east coast trouginess...


H+84 at 200mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[boca]

Its my opinion that if something forms north of PR is going to get pulled NE due to the exiting trough off the SE coast.In June north of 20n is very rare to have a system move west this time of year due to westerlies and troughs.The Caribbean is different the easterlies come alot earlier.The water vapor is a dead giveaway of which way is going to move.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

I think we need to keep an eye on the monsoon trough from EPAC (91E) to N of PR of any vorticity to develope. This area is going to be a hot bed for the while for systems to form in my humble opinion.

[george_r_1961]

Its my opinion that if something forms north of PR is going to get pulled NE due to the exiting trough off the SE coast.In June north of 20n is very rare to have a system move west this time of year due to westerlies and troughs.The Caribbean is different the easterlies come alot earlier.The water vapor is a dead giveaway of which way is going to move.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Unless we get a significant ridge building over the SE US you are absolutely correct in my opinion. That trough is gonna pick up and/or shear apart anything that tries to form.

[gatorcane]

A significant ridge IS in the process of building leaving behind a mess north of Puerto Rico. NWS Miami indicates a deep easterly flow for the end of this week that may bring in an Upper Level low from the troughiness in the region from the Bahamas to the Northern Leewards.

Should we issue a BEAR WATCH on this area? Climatology says no to this area, however.

MODEL AGREEMENT DECREASES SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM A TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS
IT MAY TUCK WESTWARD UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST. THE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS BEING THAT IF THE UPPER LOW DOES
MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO OVER S FL OR OVER THE FAR EASTERN GLFMEX
(GFS AND NOW ALSO THE EURO MODEL) THIS WOULD COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS
REDUCING THE CAP AND PROVIDE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN TURN AIDING TSRA
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER AS WITH THE NAM/DGEX THE LOW STAYS EAST OF
THE PENINSULA AND RESULTING IN MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER S FL. ATTM
KEPT LOW END SCT POPS FOR THE EXTENDED AS A BLEND.

[vaffie]

Shear is dropping fast ahead of this area of disturbed weather.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[boca]

I stated earlier in a post that unless a very strong high builds in to the SE US which would block the system from scooting out to the NE very soon.The area of disturbed weather north of PR will of lifted out by Sat of which the high is supposed to build in by then.

[gatorcane]

Boca, I think NWS Miami thinks it will get blocked by a building ridge. They are thinking a possible MID-LEVEL low coming our way from the east.

MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY IN TURN STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DIURNAL
WITH INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR
STORMS ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY WEST SIDE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. NAM12 IS TOO AGGRESSIVE
SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH THE GFS40 DOESN`T REALLY SHOW THIS. I COMPROMISED AND PUT IN
20 PERCENT EAST ZONES AND ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES BUT MOVES FURTHER NORTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWER PRESSURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST AND THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND A
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NOT BITE ON THIS
JUST YET AND JUST LEAVE IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. ACTUALLY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE SATURDAY ON.

[boca]

It looks like is moving out now to the NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Recurve]

That run of the NAM above showed a moisture island, faily disconnected from the mass of moist air from Cuba south and the Bahamas east, when it hit SFla.

We need a rain event.

The high has been like a fence between the caribbean and Florida. We've been on the edge of very juicy air for a few weeks it seems.