Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#1 Postby Vortex » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:58 am

Various models bring an area of low pressure/disturbed weather west this week originating from what appears to be the interaction of a mid/upper level low and a triopical wave this morning just to the N of PR. As ridging takes hold to the north and shear lessens across the western atlantic this *may* become an interesting feature mid week as it nears the Bahamas. More later as additional guidance comes in..
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#2 Postby Vortex » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:59 am

0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#3 Postby boca » Mon Jun 02, 2008 7:09 am

I think if something tries to get organized it will move NE due to that trough exiting the S Carolina coastline.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#4 Postby Vortex » Mon Jun 02, 2008 8:48 am

Boca,

Initiallly next 24-48 hours there may be a tendency for this developing system to have the moisture pulled more NW as the trough exits the SE coast. Beyond 48 hours ridging may not only send this develeping low/wave further west towards the bahamas but the shear may also drop off based on the forecasted synoptics. Either way I think a convection is likely to really blossom over this area as it heads west and may bring locally heavy rains to the bahamas late this week.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#5 Postby Vortex » Mon Jun 02, 2008 9:44 am

12 Z NAM Loop shows this area fairly nice as it treks WNW the next few days.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#6 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jun 02, 2008 10:17 am

I just don't see that - it moves the area very slowly then stalls in it the last frame as it is pulled NE towards the trough that is currently moving off the SE coast...
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#7 Postby Vortex » Mon Jun 02, 2008 10:24 am

At H+84 Appears to become a classic ULL in connection with some of the east coast trouginess...


H+84 at 200mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#8 Postby boca » Mon Jun 02, 2008 10:28 am

Its my opinion that if something forms north of PR is going to get pulled NE due to the exiting trough off the SE coast.In June north of 20n is very rare to have a system move west this time of year due to westerlies and troughs.The Caribbean is different the easterlies come alot earlier.The water vapor is a dead giveaway of which way is going to move.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#9 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 02, 2008 10:31 am

I think we need to keep an eye on the monsoon trough from EPAC (91E) to N of PR of any vorticity to develope. This area is going to be a hot bed for the while for systems to form in my humble opinion.
0 likes   

User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#10 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Jun 02, 2008 7:09 pm

boca wrote:Its my opinion that if something forms north of PR is going to get pulled NE due to the exiting trough off the SE coast.In June north of 20n is very rare to have a system move west this time of year due to westerlies and troughs.The Caribbean is different the easterlies come alot earlier.The water vapor is a dead giveaway of which way is going to move.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html


Unless we get a significant ridge building over the SE US you are absolutely correct in my opinion. That trough is gonna pick up and/or shear apart anything that tries to form.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#11 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 04, 2008 12:32 pm

A significant ridge IS in the process of building leaving behind a mess north of Puerto Rico. NWS Miami indicates a deep easterly flow for the end of this week that may bring in an Upper Level low from the troughiness in the region from the Bahamas to the Northern Leewards.

Should we issue a BEAR WATCH on this area? Climatology says no to this area, however.

MODEL AGREEMENT DECREASES SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM A TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS
IT MAY TUCK WESTWARD UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST. THE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS BEING THAT IF THE UPPER LOW DOES
MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO OVER S FL OR OVER THE FAR EASTERN GLFMEX
(GFS AND NOW ALSO THE EURO MODEL) THIS WOULD COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS
REDUCING THE CAP AND PROVIDE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN TURN AIDING TSRA
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER AS WITH THE NAM/DGEX THE LOW STAYS EAST OF
THE PENINSULA AND RESULTING IN MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER S FL. ATTM
KEPT LOW END SCT POPS FOR THE EXTENDED AS A BLEND.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#12 Postby vaffie » Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:51 pm

Shear is dropping fast ahead of this area of disturbed weather.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#13 Postby boca » Wed Jun 04, 2008 6:29 pm

I stated earlier in a post that unless a very strong high builds in to the SE US which would block the system from scooting out to the NE very soon.The area of disturbed weather north of PR will of lifted out by Sat of which the high is supposed to build in by then.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#14 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 04, 2008 6:53 pm

Boca, I think NWS Miami thinks it will get blocked by a building ridge. They are thinking a possible MID-LEVEL low coming our way from the east.

MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY IN TURN STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA.
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DIURNAL
WITH INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR
STORMS ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY WEST SIDE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. NAM12 IS TOO AGGRESSIVE
SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH THE GFS40 DOESN`T REALLY SHOW THIS. I COMPROMISED AND PUT IN
20 PERCENT EAST ZONES AND ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES BUT MOVES FURTHER NORTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWER PRESSURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST AND THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND A
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL NOT BITE ON THIS
JUST YET AND JUST LEAVE IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. ACTUALLY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE SATURDAY ON.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#15 Postby boca » Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:06 pm

It looks like is moving out now to the NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Recurve
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1640
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 8:59 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Area of interest N of Puerto Rico/DR

#16 Postby Recurve » Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:53 pm

That run of the NAM above showed a moisture island, faily disconnected from the mass of moist air from Cuba south and the Bahamas east, when it hit SFla.

We need a rain event.

The high has been like a fence between the caribbean and Florida. We've been on the edge of very juicy air for a few weeks it seems.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: canebeard, LarryWx, Ulf and 18 guests