tolakram wrote:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater
View last 5 frames. I dunno, maybe a little north of west...
Invest 91L in SE Caribbean=(Gone from NRL)
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
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Looks like even if the circulation that is being watched does head inland a fair part of the wave will eventually emerge back into the Caribbean sea. Here it will probably need to be watched, esp in the normal hotpost of June activity which is W.Cairbbean. Another nice little teaser from further east, won't be long before they are north enough to clear South America...
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- wxman57
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
Decomdoug wrote:I am pretty sure 91L's only real value is as a practice exercise. However it is good to have a non-threatening system to watch.
I was going to suggest that but last time I suggested that the NHC might just want to use a questionable system just as a live test of procedures, etc., you'd think I'd committed some sort of horrible crime. In fact, we just used it to test our designation procedures and web page.
In any case, the convection is collapsing and the low-level swirl is already dissipating. Nothing to get excited about.
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
wxman57 wrote:Decomdoug wrote:I am pretty sure 91L's only real value is as a practice exercise. However it is good to have a non-threatening system to watch.
I was going to suggest that but last time I suggested that the NHC might just want to use a questionable system just as a live test of procedures, etc., you'd think I'd committed some sort of horrible crime. In fact, we just used it to test our designation procedures and web page.
In any case, the convection is collapsing and the low-level swirl is already dissipating. Nothing to get excited about.
I was thinking the same thing! Apparently some thought it was taboo to believe the NHC could do such a thing.
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Re: Re:
MortisFL wrote:HURAKAN wrote:Why would it be upgraded to an invest if no development was ancitipated?
I doesn't make sense.
Because it looks good enough at this present time to warrant it an invest?
Usually an invest is declared because it has a possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone, not just because it's a puff of clouds.
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
Looks like just a wave axis now. Low level swirl and associated burst of convection has dissipated. Has as much of a chance of developing as any other wave tracking across northern South America. Just need to keep an eye on the SW Caribbean in 3-4 days for any increase in convection.
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
The interesting thing about this situation is not necesarily 91L but that large cloud mass behind it because if shear lets up and it continues moving west or WNW it might turn north in the Western Caribbean.Why because by Sunday or trough will incompass the Eastern US and pull whatever is entering the Western Caribbean northward giving us needed rain.
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:Why would it be upgraded to an invest if no development was ancitipated?
I doesn't make sense.
People seem to argue about this every year. Not sure why and could never understand why 57 was raked over the coals when he mentions "testing." Hopefully this can put this subject to rest.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
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Quite possibly Boca, the large mass behind it is probably more likely in the longer term to do anything simply because of the larger mositure area present with it. 91L does look like a linear wave now.
I think 91L probably was a test, sure it did have a chance at developing as well but chances are it was going to run out of space before it had any real chance.
I think 91L probably was a test, sure it did have a chance at developing as well but chances are it was going to run out of space before it had any real chance.
Last edited by KWT on Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
boca wrote:The interesting thing about this situation is not necesarily 91L but that large cloud mass behind it because if shear lets up and it continues moving west or WNW it might turn north in the Western Caribbean.Why because by Sunday or trough will incompass the Eastern US and pull whatever is entering the Western Caribbean northward giving us needed rain.
Miami AFD to support your claim. Anything in the SW Caribbean this weekend and into early next week definitely will need close monitoring as the long wave pattern is about to change.
AT ANY
RATE, IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE
CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
Have the long range models picked up on this "invest"?
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Re: Invest 91L: East of Trinidad/Lesser Antilles
Question for the staticians out there.In the last couple of years in June I don't remember seeing waves like this holding together and looking this juicy.I think I could answer my own question because of SAL was more prevalent in the last couple of years.
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