Invest 91L in SE Caribbean=(Gone from NRL)

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

View last 5 frames. I dunno, maybe a little north of west...

[KWT]

Looks like even if the circulation that is being watched does head inland a fair part of the wave will eventually emerge back into the Caribbean sea. Here it will probably need to be watched, esp in the normal hotpost of June activity which is W.Cairbbean. Another nice little teaser from further east, won't be long before they are north enough to clear South America...

[wxman57]

I am pretty sure 91L's only real value is as a practice exercise. However it is good to have a non-threatening system to watch.

I was going to suggest that but last time I suggested that the NHC might just want to use a questionable system just as a live test of procedures, etc., you'd think I'd committed some sort of horrible crime. In fact, we just used it to test our designation procedures and web page.

In any case, the convection is collapsing and the low-level swirl is already dissipating. Nothing to get excited about.

[HURAKAN]

Why would it be upgraded to an invest if no development was ancitipated?

I doesn't make sense.

[senorpepr]

I am pretty sure 91L's only real value is as a practice exercise. However it is good to have a non-threatening system to watch.

I was going to suggest that but last time I suggested that the NHC might just want to use a questionable system just as a live test of procedures, etc., you'd think I'd committed some sort of horrible crime. In fact, we just used it to test our designation procedures and web page.

In any case, the convection is collapsing and the low-level swirl is already dissipating. Nothing to get excited about.

I was thinking the same thing! Apparently some thought it was taboo to believe the NHC could do such a thing.

[HouTXmetro]

convection does seem to be moving more north

[MortisFL]

Why would it be upgraded to an invest if no development was ancitipated?

I doesn't make sense.

Because it looks good enough at this present time to warrant it an invest?

[gatorcane]

most of the convection looks like it is going to miss Venezuela, but it looks like it will open back up into a Wave anyway.

[HURAKAN]

Why would it be upgraded to an invest if no development was ancitipated?

I doesn't make sense.

Because it looks good enough at this present time to warrant it an invest?

Usually an invest is declared because it has a possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone, not just because it's a puff of clouds.

[wxman57]

Looks like just a wave axis now. Low level swirl and associated burst of convection has dissipated. Has as much of a chance of developing as any other wave tracking across northern South America. Just need to keep an eye on the SW Caribbean in 3-4 days for any increase in convection.

[KWT]

Yep thats going to be the main area to watch I think wxman57 with reagrds to 91L esp as that does tend to be a hotspot for early season development. As long as it can keep popping convection along the wave axis it will have a chance down the road.

[JonathanBelles]

[boca]

The interesting thing about this situation is not necesarily 91L but that large cloud mass behind it because if shear lets up and it continues moving west or WNW it might turn north in the Western Caribbean.Why because by Sunday or trough will incompass the Eastern US and pull whatever is entering the Western Caribbean northward giving us needed rain.

[Stratosphere747]

Why would it be upgraded to an invest if no development was ancitipated?

I doesn't make sense.

People seem to argue about this every year. Not sure why and could never understand why 57 was raked over the coals when he mentions "testing." Hopefully this can put this subject to rest.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Invest:

A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

[KWT]

Quite possibly Boca, the large mass behind it is probably more likely in the longer term to do anything simply because of the larger mositure area present with it. 91L does look like a linear wave now.

I think 91L probably was a test, sure it did have a chance at developing as well but chances are it was going to run out of space before it had any real chance.

[gatorcane]

The interesting thing about this situation is not necesarily 91L but that large cloud mass behind it because if shear lets up and it continues moving west or WNW it might turn north in the Western Caribbean.Why because by Sunday or trough will incompass the Eastern US and pull whatever is entering the Western Caribbean northward giving us needed rain.

Miami AFD to support your claim. Anything in the SW Caribbean this weekend and into early next week definitely will need close monitoring as the long wave pattern is about to change.

AT ANY
RATE, IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE
CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD

[micktooth]

Have the long range models picked up on this "invest"?

[boca]

Question for the staticians out there.In the last couple of years in June I don't remember seeing waves like this holding together and looking this juicy.I think I could answer my own question because of SAL was more prevalent in the last couple of years.

[HURAKAN]

Stratosphere747, thanks!!!

[KWT]

Boca, yep thats something others have been mentioning, seems like the lower then normal shear south of 10N is really helping these waves keep together and the recent warming of the SST's in that region is also really helping out I guess.