Potential in the GOM?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Too much shear, but if there is persistence for a few more days maybe
something might try to spin up. In the mean time, due to this
trough driven storm complex, a:

nice big squall line from this mess is about to smack me in the face!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
special marine warning for 50 mph wind gusts

In any case, this thunderstorm complex has produced a lot
of strong thunderstorms with strong wind gusts.

[dixiebreeze]

We're getting plenty of storms, too, TBH, and it looks now like it's training NE from the BOC. NOT complaining about the rain!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Could this slowly develop into a tropical system? The squalls that have
been moving through Florida have been producing gusts over 50 mph.
See Macdill Air Force Base station http://www.wunderground.com get forecast
for Tampa for detailed wind records.

[KWT]

Yeah it does look like that as well you can see new cells popping up just to the NE of the previous cells, still this effect is helping to keep the complex sustained to a certain degree I suppose.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A lot of widespread disorganized convection.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Time to watch. Nothing is likely to form, but it should be watched.
If a system could form in June, the NW Caribbean or GOM would be where
it forms.

[stormy1970al]

Power went out early this morning around 4am and then this afternoon around 5pm when I got home from work.

[JonathanBelles]

Another round tomorrow?

[hiflyer]

Another round for SEFLA.....from the discussion
"WITH THE FORECAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BE NEARLY THE SAME AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE PAST 2
DAY`S STORM HISTORY SOME MAY BE STRONG "

Interesting at midnight in the Bahamas....Northern storms by Freeport heading east....southern by Nassau heading west.....ahhhh summer!

[srainhoutx]

CRP mentions in the long term portion of morning AFD that the weekend "could bring increased rain" to TX Coastal areas from TW currently E of Windward Islands by this weekend. We shall see.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[boca]

CRP mentions in the long term portion of morning AFD that the weekend "could bring increased rain" to TX Coastal areas from TW currently E of Windward Islands by this weekend. We shall see.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

Yes,we're supposed to get the wave during Wed timeframe too.So after us its your turn in Texas.

[dixiebreeze]

Nice little blob in the BOC

[KWT]

Yep a small blob in the BoC quite close to the Mexican coast. I don't think anything will likely form from it as shear is close by but you just don't know down that region of the world if the convection can sustain itself for any period of time.

[dixiebreeze]

Here 'tis:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

Seems to me it would be drifting into the GOM

[inda_iwall]

It is def drifting in GOM...told my wife as the storms passed over us into the gulf over the weekend, that I bet this front initiates something tropical down there. Plus our water felt a little too warm for this time of year (Pensacola) and that is not good.

[srainhoutx]

Give the GOM a little time. Stalled boundries have a history of surprises through the years. I suspect we'll see more upper level vorts form along trough the next few days in my humple opinion.

Hmmm

[HouTXmetro]

That swirl in the BOC looks interesting.

[NDG]

Absolutely nothing to look at the GOM, the atmospheric conditions is not such for any tropical development to occur at this time. The weekend and early next week might be different story as a tropical wave enters the southern GOM & BOC.

[Stratosphere747]

Absolutely nothing to look at the GOM, the atmospheric conditions is not such for any tropical development to occur at this time. The weekend and early next week might be different story as a tropical wave enters the southern GOM & BOC.

I'm honestly scratching my head trying to figure out what people are seeing or trying to insinuate...

It's one thing to speculate on the future wave that some of the AFD's have mentioned, but there is nothing at the present to make mention of.

[NDG]

Absolutely nothing to look at the GOM, the atmospheric conditions is not such for any tropical development to occur at this time. The weekend and early next week might be different story as a tropical wave enters the southern GOM & BOC.

I'm honestly scratching my head trying to figure out what people are seeing or trying to insinuate...

It's one thing to speculate on the future wave that some of the AFD's have mentioned, but there is nothing at the present to make mention of.

You and me both,

From the surface to the upper levels, just nothing, nada, people please leave the GOM alone. Surface pressures are so high is not even funny.
For the short term look at the EPAC area, that's where tropical development has the best chances.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Absolutely nothing to look at the GOM, the atmospheric conditions is not such for any tropical development to occur at this time. The weekend and early next week might be different story as a tropical wave enters the southern GOM & BOC.

I'm honestly scratching my head trying to figure out what people are seeing or trying to insinuate...

It's one thing to speculate on the future wave that some of the AFD's have mentioned, but there is nothing at the present to make mention of.

People are bored we haven't had six invests and three storms less than four weeks into the season. It is that time of year, nothing on TV but baseball, severe weather season is winding down (but isn't over!) and Atlantic season hasn't cranked up yet.


I liked baseball as a kid, back when the same core six or seven players would be on the same team for five years or more, and the game seemed faster paced. Now I just can't make myself care, and football is two months away.