TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

[jhamps10]

wow, Accuweather just hit a new low, calling a 40MPH tropical storm's track as an eye path....

[HURAKAN]

That's what they call the "Cone of Uncertainty" even if there is no eye!!!

[Category 5]

This things days might be numbered, it's entering an area of no heat content. When it clears that in 48 hours, welcome to sheer city. I'd dismiss the chance of this becoming a Hurricane, or even becoming much stronger period. Any hopes of a nice long track fishy appear to be diminishing to me.

[Derek Ortt]

to be fair, shear is decreasing in the high shear zone and it is 5 days away from it

[KWT]

Well given its in very low SSt's and low heat content right now and its still looking ok then I don't think its going to wekaen unless other factors kick in. I think the fact its got a good structure will also help to keep it going.

I think once it reaches 40W and manages to get back into the higher heat content and as long as its not fallen apart by then I see no reason why it can't strengthen at least for the first 24hrs its over that water, I think thats its best shot at becoming a powerful tropical storm, maybe higher but you just can't say to be honest!

[Gustywind]

to be fair, shear is decreasing in the high shear zone and it is 5 days away from it

Yeah Derek it has a maybe a window opportunity to be something decent during its trip for sure...

[Recurve]

Nice look! Bertha is showing off.

It is pretty, but in a delicate way. Perfect form but kinda puny, isn't it? With all due respect.

Likely headed toward swaths of shear.

Upper level shear.

Lower steering (latest), possibly staying south?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think that zero line on the oceanic heat content graph is at 26ºC. I think a weak system can remain steady state over water a degree or two cooler, if all else is favorable. Noting a slow intensification forecast by NHC, that appears to be the their reasoning as well.

[jaxfladude]

Be thankful that it is not yet Mid-August to October.....

[KWT]

That may be the case Ed, it does seem to match the 26C line pretty closely looking at that chart now.

recurve, shear is high but the tendency has been for it to decrease steadily on the southern part of the high shear zone. Anyway shouldn't be a problem for at least 96-120hrs yet anyway and plenty can happen in that time as we all know.

Also won't be long till we finally have floater on Bertha.

[Derek Ortt]

That may be the case Ed, it does seem to match the 26C line pretty closely looking at that chart now.

recurve, shear is high but the tendency has been for it to decrease steadily on the southern part of the high shear zone. Anyway shouldn't be a problem for at least 96-120hrs yet anyway and plenty can happen in that time as we all know.

Also won't be long till we finally have floater on Bertha.

I put one on http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html but you can only see the western extent of the circulation yet... maybe later tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest until the entire storm is available

[cycloneye]

Convection comming back.

[HURAKAN]

It should be fully back tomorrow morning.

[KWT]

Yeah should be Hurakan at least to some extent with the Dmax taking place. I think convection probably will be a littlw thin on the ground for the next 36-48hrs with this system over the lower SST's but if it can survive that then warmer waters await it further to the west.

[soonertwister]

I'm an amateur, but I'm entirely unconvinced what big Bertha will take that nice parabolic recurve that is usually in the track forecast for building tropical storms. I've seen it not do so enough times that my confidence level is pretty low.

Over all the years of watching tropical systems, I've been amazed at how they confound the experts again and again. The presumption is that Bertha will recurve north and be destroyed by still existing unfavorable conditions. I've seen the scenario fail many times before.

God help a society that buys into absolutism when they can't even predict where hurricanes will go prior to the end game.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still a nice system, with nice convection refiring, most likely around 35-40 knots. I expect it to strengthen to 40-45 tonight.

[KWT]

I think if any deep convection does fire up over the center then its got the structure for it to up the winds a little bit IMO, if the deep convection carries on developing like it is right now as hit the Dmax later on then we should see the winds upped to 40kts I'd have thought. Still we shall have to wait and see how the cooler waters effect this system in the next 24hrs, esp at Dmin.

[Weatherfreak000]

Thinking a Hurricane out of Bertha, many, many storms have proven Hurricane status is possible with minimal SST's so long as the shear ratio is correct, and current shear maps dictate Bertha has quite a lot of time ahead of it.

[Eyewall]

This what im thinking. Disagree if you please.
The storm is now pushing closer and closer to a dry and stable airmass:

Also looking at the heat content chart posted above, things are not working in the favor of intensification.
But as it heads on a WNW course, it will gain enough latitude to be affected by the break in the ridge and eventually curve off to sea.