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Derek Ortt wrote:unless there is a slight decoupling of the low and MLC
wxman57 wrote:Lots of debate about where's Bertha going overnight and the cause of the current rapid west movement. Will it continue? Let's take a look at the steering currents as depicted by the latest GFS and see if we can see why Bertha has accelerated westward in the past 24 hours:
First, the mean 700mb-400mb wind flow (about 10,000-20,000 ft) across the Atlantic valid right now (10am CDT Sun). As you can see, it's passing right beneath a high center, resulting in a tight east-west wind gradient. That's the reason for the acceleration. But look just to the west and you'll see that the gradient drops off very rapidly later today as Bertha approaches the weakness in the ridge along the TUTT axis.
Now let's look 96 hours out to 10am CDT Thursday and see what the steering currents look like. I've plotted Bertha's 96hr position on the map. Look at that trof digging down along the East U.S. Coast and the position of the Bermuda high northeast of Bertha. A perfect opportunity to recurve out to sea. And for those of you concerned about Florida, not the big "H" sitting over Florida. So if the GFS is even close to being right, the odds of a Florida landfall are slim and chances are, Bertha will begin making the turn north in about 4 days.
Of course, this all assumes that the GFS forecast is good. It seems to have done a good job with Bertha so far, so I see no reason to totally discount it.
jlauderdal wrote:And based on the maps and the track I predict a substantial decrease in temper and number of posts. For those of you that like power outages and destruction you will have to wait for the next system. Happy Hurricane Hunting.
RL3AO wrote:000
WTNT32 KNHC 061444
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST SUN JUL 06 2008
...BERTHA MOVING BRISKLY WESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1185
MILES...1905 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.4 N...45.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
MiamiensisWx wrote:jlauderdal wrote:And based on the maps and the track I predict a substantial decrease in temper and number of posts. For those of you that like power outages and destruction you will have to wait for the next system. Happy Hurricane Hunting.
Huh?! I thought you stated the majority of south FL members weren't -removed-!
What was the impetus for you to insert the bolded tibit?
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