TC Bertha

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RL3AO
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#1841 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:44 pm

It has to be center relocation. Nothing on the loop has suggested a turn.
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Derek Ortt

#1842 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:44 pm

based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun
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#1843 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun

Or did the center merely relocate under the convection?
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#1844 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:45 pm

^That explains it. Ya looks like you were right Aric
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#1845 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun

a brief wnw track happened.. the current visible loop shows a clear west movement..
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#1846 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:48 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun


very quick to make that call though Derek given we've only seen a 6hr movement that would support WNW, certainly has moved WNW recently but I'd like to see it last a good bit longer before making that call, esp given that eddy/eye feature has been heading west looking at the Vis.loops over the last 2-3hrs again.
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#1847 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:50 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun


Sorry Derek but I tend to agree with Aric on this one....Frank2 noticed that WNW bob this morning as well....but watch the loops very carefully...it is still moving west..center just reformed further to the north...
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1848 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:51 pm

another image just came in..

clearly showing the center.. and an eye feature trying to form.. with a band extending NE which is indicative of a organizing hurricane..

Image
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#1849 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:51 pm

I still believe this is just a wobble or relocation, but I wouldn't rule out that the storm has briefly taken on a WNW motion either. Either way, even if Bertha is heading slightly north of west right now, it does not appear that this motion will last. Based upon the latest Atlantic steering currents, it looks likely that Bertha will bend back toward the west over the next 24-48 hours...

500-850mb steering currents (for storms with a 990-1000mb pressure): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
400-850mb steering currents (for storms with a 970-990mb pressure): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1850 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:51 pm

It shouldn't be all that surprising its formed an eye feature it seems because its just gone back over +26C waters and they are only getting warmer from now on, shear also isn't that high over the center.

I wonder if we are going to get a special because the 45kts estimated by NHC earlier is looking too low now.
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#1851 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:53 pm

The next advisory should really be interesting.
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#1852 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:53 pm

Wow, I leave for about half an hour to find that Bertha has an eye feature and a center relocation. This will probably adjust the track by quite alot.
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1853 Postby jaxfladude » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:53 pm

HURAKAN wrote:The new GFDL is calling for Bertha to reach 30°N at 61.6°W. Right now I don't see that happening.


:eek: It better be and going north-ish...
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1854 Postby x-y-no » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:another image just came in..

clearly showing the center.. and an eye feature trying to form.. with a band extending NE which is indicative of a organizing hurricane..

Image


Well, I take back my "illusion" comment - that center position looks reasonably close to what you pointed out earlier.
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#1855 Postby x-y-no » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:56 pm

KWT wrote:It shouldn't be all that surprising its formed an eye feature it seems because its just gone back over +26C waters and they are only getting warmer from now on, shear also isn't that high over the center.

I wonder if we are going to get a special because the 45kts estimated by NHC earlier is looking too low now.


Given that there's no imminent threat to land, I expect they'll wait until the normal advisory time.
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#1856 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:58 pm

Plus the fact it is only 1 hour away from the next advisory.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1857 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:59 pm

The expansion and "banding" shape of colder cloud tops near the center (as seen on IR imagery) can be another indicator of a developing inner core or a banding type eye feature. That is a common signature with intensifying tropical cyclones that are "on their way" to a strong TS or hurricane. Currently, that is happening now on the TRMM scan and IR GOES imagery, with convection forming a slight "banding" shape near the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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#1858 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 06, 2008 2:59 pm

I'm thinking 55kts at 21z. Just a guess though.


And for the love of god, turn on NBC and watch Wimbledon Men's final. Its up there IMO for sporting event of the decade.
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#1859 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:00 pm

>>Or did the center merely relocate under the convection?

It doesn't matter how it happens, only that it happens. Relocation, wobbling, direct track all get a storm wherever it's going.

Steve
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Re:

#1860 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:00 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm thinking 55kts at 21z. Just a guess though.


And for the love of god, turn on NBC and watch Wimbledon Men's final. Its up there IMO for sporting event of the decade.


I know...it is CRAZY!..Nadal just 1 point away from winning but Federer wasnt having any of that...now 9 PM in England
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