TC Bertha

[RL3AO]

It has to be center relocation. Nothing on the loop has suggested a turn.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun

[brunota2003]

based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun

Or did the center merely relocate under the convection?

[Normandy]

^That explains it. Ya looks like you were right Aric

[Aric Dunn]

based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun

a brief wnw track happened.. the current visible loop shows a clear west movement..

[KWT]

based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun

very quick to make that call though Derek given we've only seen a 6hr movement that would support WNW, certainly has moved WNW recently but I'd like to see it last a good bit longer before making that call, esp given that eddy/eye feature has been heading west looking at the Vis.loops over the last 2-3hrs again.

['CaneFreak]

based upon the latest microwave, a WNW track has begun

Sorry Derek but I tend to agree with Aric on this one....Frank2 noticed that WNW bob this morning as well....but watch the loops very carefully...it is still moving west..center just reformed further to the north...

[Aric Dunn]

another image just came in..

clearly showing the center.. and an eye feature trying to form.. with a band extending NE which is indicative of a organizing hurricane..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still believe this is just a wobble or relocation, but I wouldn't rule out that the storm has briefly taken on a WNW motion either. Either way, even if Bertha is heading slightly north of west right now, it does not appear that this motion will last. Based upon the latest Atlantic steering currents, it looks likely that Bertha will bend back toward the west over the next 24-48 hours...

500-850mb steering currents (for storms with a 990-1000mb pressure): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
400-850mb steering currents (for storms with a 970-990mb pressure): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[KWT]

It shouldn't be all that surprising its formed an eye feature it seems because its just gone back over +26C waters and they are only getting warmer from now on, shear also isn't that high over the center.

I wonder if we are going to get a special because the 45kts estimated by NHC earlier is looking too low now.

[HURAKAN]

The next advisory should really be interesting.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, I leave for about half an hour to find that Bertha has an eye feature and a center relocation. This will probably adjust the track by quite alot.

[jaxfladude]

The new GFDL is calling for Bertha to reach 30°N at 61.6°W. Right now I don't see that happening.

It better be and going north-ish...

[x-y-no]

another image just came in..

clearly showing the center.. and an eye feature trying to form.. with a band extending NE which is indicative of a organizing hurricane..

Well, I take back my "illusion" comment - that center position looks reasonably close to what you pointed out earlier.

[x-y-no]

It shouldn't be all that surprising its formed an eye feature it seems because its just gone back over +26C waters and they are only getting warmer from now on, shear also isn't that high over the center.

I wonder if we are going to get a special because the 45kts estimated by NHC earlier is looking too low now.

Given that there's no imminent threat to land, I expect they'll wait until the normal advisory time.

[brunota2003]

Plus the fact it is only 1 hour away from the next advisory.

[MiamiensisWx]

The expansion and "banding" shape of colder cloud tops near the center (as seen on IR imagery) can be another indicator of a developing inner core or a banding type eye feature. That is a common signature with intensifying tropical cyclones that are "on their way" to a strong TS or hurricane. Currently, that is happening now on the TRMM scan and IR GOES imagery, with convection forming a slight "banding" shape near the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[RL3AO]

I'm thinking 55kts at 21z. Just a guess though.


And for the love of god, turn on NBC and watch Wimbledon Men's final. Its up there IMO for sporting event of the decade.

[Steve]

>>Or did the center merely relocate under the convection?

It doesn't matter how it happens, only that it happens. Relocation, wobbling, direct track all get a storm wherever it's going.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

I'm thinking 55kts at 21z. Just a guess though.


And for the love of god, turn on NBC and watch Wimbledon Men's final. Its up there IMO for sporting event of the decade.

I know...it is CRAZY!..Nadal just 1 point away from winning but Federer wasnt having any of that...now 9 PM in England