TC Bertha

[jaxfladude]

We can definitely eliminate a FL threat. I concur.

Whew for the season I hope.....

[JonathanBelles]

We can definitely eliminate a FL threat. I concur.

Ill agree with a 95% assurance.

[CrazyC83]

I agree with the Felix-95 analogy. Anyone in Bermuda or the North American east coast from Savannah northward should be thinking of preparations.

[americanrebel]

I hope you guys are right, but I see this being like Andrew was very against the rules and doing what she wants. I think every one along the East Coast from Key West to Martha's Vineyard needs to keep an eye on this one. If it does follow an Andrew line, I will have to keep an eye on it also.

[gotoman38]

Looks like a good S shear to me - but she is strong IMO - Cat1? No.

[MGC]

That last microwave image is showing some feederband starting to form. I would not be surprised if Bertha is a hurricane tomorrow morning......MGC

[gotoman38]

That last microwave image is showing some feederband starting to form. I would not be surprised if Bertha is a hurricane tomorrow morning......MGC

I can see that - if the center is 18.8N 49W. Good call IMO.

Looks like a good S shear to me - but she is strong IMO - Cat1? No.

[Derek Ortt]

I hope you guys are right, but I see this being like Andrew was very against the rules and doing what she wants. I think every one along the East Coast from Key West to Martha's Vineyard needs to keep an eye on this one. If it does follow an Andrew line, I will have to keep an eye on it also.

storms do not do what they want. They follows basic laws of physics.

Andrew's westward turn was always anticpated. Now, the forward speed was poorly forecast, but th turn was captured correctly. Given the limited guidance avilable then, that was a very good forecast

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear is back with the cloud tops on the north side screaming south to north. Don't expect this to become a hurricane until that is gone.

[Weatherfreak000]

Eh.....I really am shocked.


This storm is NEVER going to hit Florida. Never. Get over it.


Let's move on.

[kpost]

Not that this is saying much, it's just a huge difference.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Eh.....I really am shocked.


This storm is NEVER going to hit Florida. Never. Get over it.


Let's move on.

True, but if I were in NC, I would watch this very carefully.

[Weatherfreak000]

I completely agree Matt. It's just disappointing to still see Florida Hype when it's about as possible as the Smog level in China going down for the Olympics.

[UpTheCreek]

I completely agree Matt. It's just disappointing to still see Florida Hype when it's about as possible as the Smog level in China going down for the Olympics.

hehe, good one!

[Derek Ortt]

The shear is back with the cloud tops on the north side screaming south to north. Don't expect this to become a hurricane until that is gone.

that's called the outflow

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear is back with the cloud tops on the north side screaming south to north. Don't expect this to become a hurricane until that is gone.

that's called the outflow

Derek based on this shear map it is under 12-15 knots of southly to southwestly shear. That is not super favorable. On the other hand the shear out ahead of it is becoming more favorable, so the tutt is moving out.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[pojo]

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 061715 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 06 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK. (AMENDED)
A. POSSIBLE AIR FORCE FLIGHT ON TS BERTHA,
8/18Z, 20N 57W.
3. BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES 9/12Z IF NECESSARY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SMR

[Brent]

The shear is back with the cloud tops on the north side screaming south to north. Don't expect this to become a hurricane until that is gone.

that's called the outflow

I'm sorry but I had to reply... best post ever.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear is back with the cloud tops on the north side screaming south to north. Don't expect this to become a hurricane until that is gone.

that's called the outflow

I'm sorry but I had to reply... best post ever.

WOW, there is southwestly shear. Sure it is helping to form a "outflow" out of the north, but with the shear the system is dealing with, I just don't expect this system to strengthen much intil it lets up some.

[Aric Dunn]

warm spot in the center... of the small CDO ..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html