TC Bertha

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senorpepr
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#2161 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:32 am

Looks like Bertha is getting where more observations are available. The charts are running much better...
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#2162 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:21 am

Does anyone know when the next cloudsat pass is?
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#2163 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:26 am

fact789 wrote:Does anyone know when the next cloudsat pass is?


NRL has all the passes listed. Unfortunately, it's not too optimistic for Cloudsat. The next Cloudsat pass is scheduled at 07/1631Z, but the CPA is 208km. We shall see...
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#2164 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:27 am

cloudsat is the right satellite to see vertically right?
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2165 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:38 am

Latest Dvorak T-Numbers:

07/0545 UTC 19.0N 49.3W T4.0/4.0 BERTHA
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2166 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:43 am

Thunder44 wrote:Latest Dvorak T-Numbers:

07/0545 UTC 19.0N 49.3W T4.0/4.0 BERTHA


hurricane numbers :uarrow: :uarrow:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 18:47:52 N Lon : 49:39:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in BLACK

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2167 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:45 am

Id wager that if recon were able to sample the storm they would find hurricane winds in it right now. It looks very impressive.
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#2168 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:48 am

eye on the latest frame!!
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2169 Postby EyELeSs1 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:54 am

looks very 'hurricane' like to me right now...

Image

so who wants to believe that QS pass now?? lol
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#2170 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:55 am

I did a crude Dvorak earlier (I don't have the same tools at home as I do at work) and came up to T4.0 or just short of. Personally, I wouldn't be too surprised to see 60KT or 65KT for the 09Z advisory.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2171 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:59 am

If that satellite presentation is worthy of upgrade to hurricane status than I don't know what else Bertha would have to look like. Its unfortunate that Bermuda might have to potentially face a cyclone much stronger than thought.
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#2172 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:04 am

Yep, probably a hurricane by the next update or the one after. Very impressive. It's in the best environment it will likely experience in its lifetime between now and 48 hr. Impressive upper diffluence albeit some likely shear from the west and south, increasing after 48 hr. Still believe that outflow interaction between Bertha and the ejecting TUTT could induce a stronger TUTT to the east than progged, which will lead to greater upstream amplification of an anticyclone over Bertha. If that is the case it MIGHT reach major status.
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#2173 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:23 am

Hurricane Bertha!!

AL, 02, 2008070706, , BEST, 0, 191N, 494W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,
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#2174 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:24 am

AL, 02, 2008070706, , BEST, 0, 191N, 494W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 100, 1013, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,
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#2175 Postby CajunMama » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:27 am

man, you should have seen the stampede from the chatroom to see who could post first! :lol:
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Re:

#2176 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:28 am

CajunMama wrote:man, you should have seen the stampede from the chatroom to see who could post first! :lol:


I won!
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Re:

#2177 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:28 am

fact789 wrote:Hurricane Bertha!!

AL, 02, 2008070706, , BEST, 0, 191N, 494W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,


Yeah, the 6z models also initialized at 65kts.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2178 Postby MississippiHurricane » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:35 am

Well.........so much for my prediction post i was gonna make......would have been wrong anyway.......and i didnt get here in time to post...........drat. LOL just NOT my day :cry:
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2179 Postby CajunMama » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:11 am

MississippiHurricane wrote:Well.........so much for my prediction post i was gonna make......would have been wrong anyway.......and i didnt get here in time to post...........drat. LOL just NOT my day :cry:


good thing. you just saved yourself from embarrassing yourself :P :lol:
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#2180 Postby Chacor » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:47 am

80-knot forecast...
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