TC Bertha

[senorpepr]

Looks like Bertha is getting where more observations are available. The charts are running much better...

[JonathanBelles]

Does anyone know when the next cloudsat pass is?

[senorpepr]

Does anyone know when the next cloudsat pass is?

NRL has all the passes listed. Unfortunately, it's not too optimistic for Cloudsat. The next Cloudsat pass is scheduled at 07/1631Z, but the CPA is 208km. We shall see...

[JonathanBelles]

cloudsat is the right satellite to see vertically right?

[Thunder44]

Latest Dvorak T-Numbers:

07/0545 UTC 19.0N 49.3W T4.0/4.0 BERTHA

[JonathanBelles]

Latest Dvorak T-Numbers:

07/0545 UTC 19.0N 49.3W T4.0/4.0 BERTHA

hurricane numbers

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 18:47:52 N Lon : 49:39:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in BLACK

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Normandy]

Id wager that if recon were able to sample the storm they would find hurricane winds in it right now. It looks very impressive.

[JonathanBelles]

eye on the latest frame!!

[EyELeSs1]

looks very 'hurricane' like to me right now...



so who wants to believe that QS pass now?? lol

[senorpepr]

I did a crude Dvorak earlier (I don't have the same tools at home as I do at work) and came up to T4.0 or just short of. Personally, I wouldn't be too surprised to see 60KT or 65KT for the 09Z advisory.

[Normandy]

If that satellite presentation is worthy of upgrade to hurricane status than I don't know what else Bertha would have to look like. Its unfortunate that Bermuda might have to potentially face a cyclone much stronger than thought.

[wxmann_91]

Yep, probably a hurricane by the next update or the one after. Very impressive. It's in the best environment it will likely experience in its lifetime between now and 48 hr. Impressive upper diffluence albeit some likely shear from the west and south, increasing after 48 hr. Still believe that outflow interaction between Bertha and the ejecting TUTT could induce a stronger TUTT to the east than progged, which will lead to greater upstream amplification of an anticyclone over Bertha. If that is the case it MIGHT reach major status.

[JonathanBelles]

Hurricane Bertha!!

AL, 02, 2008070706, , BEST, 0, 191N, 494W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

[RL3AO]

AL, 02, 2008070706, , BEST, 0, 191N, 494W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 100, 1013, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

[CajunMama]

man, you should have seen the stampede from the chatroom to see who could post first!

[JonathanBelles]

man, you should have seen the stampede from the chatroom to see who could post first!

I won!

[Thunder44]

Hurricane Bertha!!

AL, 02, 2008070706, , BEST, 0, 191N, 494W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

Yeah, the 6z models also initialized at 65kts.

[MississippiHurricane]

Well.........so much for my prediction post i was gonna make......would have been wrong anyway.......and i didnt get here in time to post...........drat. LOL just NOT my day

[CajunMama]

Well.........so much for my prediction post i was gonna make......would have been wrong anyway.......and i didnt get here in time to post...........drat. LOL just NOT my day

good thing. you just saved yourself from embarrassing yourself

[Chacor]

80-knot forecast...