TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

More for the record books.
Bertha: First Atlantic hurricane and first major hurricane (Atlantic and EPAC) to be featured in the GTWO.

[jaxfladude]

Global Warming/Just favorable conditions to blame for this and the last few seasons of "rapid deepening" that we have seen.......?????

Let's not go there!

Sorry
You knew that this coming, just getting it out of the way.....

[WmE]

This is one wierd storm. A storm at the beginning of July undergoing rapid deepening in the middle of the ocean having a central pressure of 948 mbar as a weak Cat 3. That is as wierd as it can get.

[x-y-no]

Not quite Wilma-esque but still very significant and rare occurrence given it's over the Central Atlantic and not in one of the typical hot spots for bombing out.

It's getting some great assistance from the upper levels with that jet streak to its north helping to evacuate the storm's updraft much more efficiently.

Well, Wilma dropped 98mb in 24 hours, so actually this last six hours matched that rate (if these numbers are to be believed.) I severly doubt this will continue for the next three advisories, though. If it did, we really would be regretting the lack of recon.

[cycloneye]

Latest ACE:

Season total

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)

01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675

02L (Bertha) Operational 4.9550

Total 5.3225

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

[KWT]

"Estimated" readings...

I think the estimate has come from the raw Dvorak estimates of 6.0 which is about 948mbs I think?

I fully expect winds will eventually catch up with that low pressure if the deep convection forms, could get close to cat-4 with that pressure...

[RL3AO]

"Estimated" readings...

I think the estimate has come from the raw Dvorak estimates of 6.0 which is about 948mbs I think?

I fully expect winds will eventually catch up with that low pressure if the deep convection forms, could get close to cat-4 with that pressure...

6.0 = 115kt/948mb.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ACE:

Season total

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)

01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675

02L (Bertha) Operational 4.9550

Total 5.3225

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

Code: Select all

19 7 July 5 pm EDT 100 1.0000

The latest advisory ACE is three times as much as Arthur accumulated in his short life!!!

[Stratosphere747]

"Estimated" readings...

I think the estimate has come from the raw Dvorak estimates of 6.0 which is about 948mbs I think?

I fully expect winds will eventually catch up with that low pressure if the deep convection forms, could get close to cat-4 with that pressure...

I'm a firm believer in the info we get from the HH and NOAA missions. While Bertha in presentation is impressive, the estimated readings are just that are are far less impressive without having recon.

[MGC]

Wow! Checked on Bertha this morning at she was a minimal hurricane. Didn't see this coming. Bertha qualifies as a deep system so I guess my thoughts of Bertha remaining a shallow system and trending more westward got thrown out the window. It shall be interesting to see how long Bertha remains a major this far north and this early in the season. I can only hope this is not a forebearer of things to come.....MGC

[KWT]

This is one wierd storm. A storm at the beginning of July undergoing rapid deepening in the middle of the ocean having a central pressure of 948 mbar as a weak Cat 3. That is as wierd as it can get.

Yep sure is a very interesting system, seems like its trying to out do Bertha 1996 in nearly every way!

RL3AO, yep that explains it I think, I thinm the NHC has it only at 100kts because winds probabbly have'nt caught up yet and mixed down.

Decent ACE already for a July system but should increase a lot, we are going to miles ahead of where we should be once this hurricane is done.

[Weatherfreak14]

Holy Crap, I come from a treip. Last I heard was a Cat 1 and now a major hurricane. with 948mb

[jaxfladude]

Sorry , way too lazy to read back a page or two, but has recon been in Bertha(2008)yet?
Or is this all just estimates still.
When is the first/next recon flight?

[Meso]

Wow amazing.. I was gone a few hours and it deepened even further...

Here's a modis image from earlier

Modis Image

[RL3AO]

Sorry , way too lazy to read back a page or two, but has recon been in Bertha(2008)yet?
Or is this all just estimates still.
When is the first/next recon flight?

No and none scheduled.

[KWT]

MGC, who knows the models do forecast shear to increase after 24-36hrs but SST's should remain high enough for the next 120hrs...who knows if it undergoes EWRC then its anyones guess?

[hial2]

According to vis, Bertha has really slowed down her forward movement..

[WmE]

Nice stadium effect.

[tolakram]

Nice cloud tops in this frame.

[HURAKAN]

It would be very nice if everyone saves the images they post for posterity. Bertha is history in every way possible and it will be really nice to have a huge collection of images at the end of this storm's life.