TC Bertha

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HURAKAN
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#2901 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:02 am

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#2902 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:30 am

That eye has got a lot more ragged hasn't it as well as more cloud filled as well.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2903 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:32 am

Bertha has continued its steady decline that I noticed last night.

Water vapor loop just because it's colorful:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2904 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:35 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 21:34:12 N Lon : 53:18:01 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 968.8mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -26.1C Cloud Region Temp : -42.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2905 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:38 am

I'm guessing at least 25 kts of shear if not higher

Image

and moving N/NW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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#2906 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:48 am

Whats interesting is that about 26-27N the shear eases back off again and whilst heat content probably starts to decline there should be enough to sustain it as a hurricane I'd have thought.
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#2907 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:53 am

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Still a hurricane, but a weaker one.
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Re:

#2908 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:56 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Still a hurricane, but a weaker one.



This Hurricane is still hold at 120mph according to the NHC at 5am this AM.
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#2909 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:56 am

Image

There were yesterday two outbursts of intensification according to the CI numbers.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2910 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:58 am

so what dose that mean?? can you explain that????
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2911 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:00 am

On the visible imagery, you can see Bertha shooting out massive outflow boundaries to her west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2912 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:11 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:so what dose that mean?? can you explain that????


I just plotted the CI numbers between 12:45 AM to 11:45 PM of July 7, 2008. The straight line is the trendline. The CI numbers show two rapid increases in intensification.
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#2913 Postby Chacor » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:15 am

The visibles don't tell the whole story right now. Look at the IR. The eye's almost gone and convective cloud tops are warming.

Image
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#2914 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:16 am

Hmm I can sort of see the outflow boundaries that you talk about thunder44, though they are a fair way west of Bertha now it seems.

Chacor, thats certainly not a 120mph hurricane, that IMO is probably only just a cat-2 hurricane right now.
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#2915 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:19 am

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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2916 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:30 am

The eyewall is getting close to the edge of the convection - you know what that means (lots of southwesterly shear)...
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2917 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:34 am

Frank2 wrote:The eyewall is getting close to the edge of the convection - you know what that means (lots of southwesterly shear)...


Indeed Frank, Bertha may just never again get as strong as she was yesterday. She's looking more like a sheared June system more than anything.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2918 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:40 am

As expected ssd has down T numbers.

08/1145 UTC 21.8N 53.5W T4.5/5.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

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#2919 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:41 am

:uarrow: Still high enough for a minimal cat. 2.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#2920 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:42 am

Down to 90kts per ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008070812, , BEST, 0, 218N, 535W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0,
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