TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

That eye has got a lot more ragged hasn't it as well as more cloud filled as well.

[tolakram]

Bertha has continued its steady decline that I noticed last night.

Water vapor loop just because it's colorful:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 21:34:12 N Lon : 53:18:01 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 968.8mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -26.1C Cloud Region Temp : -42.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[tolakram]

I'm guessing at least 25 kts of shear if not higher



and moving N/NW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Whats interesting is that about 26-27N the shear eases back off again and whilst heat content probably starts to decline there should be enough to sustain it as a hurricane I'd have thought.

[HURAKAN]

Still a hurricane, but a weaker one.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Still a hurricane, but a weaker one.

This Hurricane is still hold at 120mph according to the NHC at 5am this AM.

[HURAKAN]

There were yesterday two outbursts of intensification according to the CI numbers.

[hurricanefloyd5]

so what dose that mean?? can you explain that????

[Thunder44]

On the visible imagery, you can see Bertha shooting out massive outflow boundaries to her west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

so what dose that mean?? can you explain that????

I just plotted the CI numbers between 12:45 AM to 11:45 PM of July 7, 2008. The straight line is the trendline. The CI numbers show two rapid increases in intensification.

[Chacor]

The visibles don't tell the whole story right now. Look at the IR. The eye's almost gone and convective cloud tops are warming.

[KWT]

Hmm I can sort of see the outflow boundaries that you talk about thunder44, though they are a fair way west of Bertha now it seems.

Chacor, thats certainly not a 120mph hurricane, that IMO is probably only just a cat-2 hurricane right now.

[HURAKAN]

[Frank2]

The eyewall is getting close to the edge of the convection - you know what that means (lots of southwesterly shear)...

[gatorcane]

The eyewall is getting close to the edge of the convection - you know what that means (lots of southwesterly shear)...

Indeed Frank, Bertha may just never again get as strong as she was yesterday. She's looking more like a sheared June system more than anything.

[cycloneye]

As expected ssd has down T numbers.

08/1145 UTC 21.8N 53.5W T4.5/5.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

Still high enough for a minimal cat. 2.

[cycloneye]

Down to 90kts per ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008070812, , BEST, 0, 218N, 535W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0,