TC Bertha

[cheezyWXguy]

hahaha boy was I wrong about bertha. I figured shed be back to strengthening again by now...but i agree 75kt looks to be the best. The eye is fully dissipated now and its shooting several outflow boundaries out to the west that are disrupting its circulation further than the already strong shear. Bye bye Bertha!

[HurricaneHunter914]

The steering currents could steer her back west, now that she's weaker right? But if she does that she'll encounter even higher shear...

[deltadog03]

WOW, I am a bit suprised at this too...She looks horrible compared to 6 hours ago.

[boca]

It doesn't look like Bermuda will have to worry about Bertha and I wouldn't be surprised if Bertha was a tropical storm by 5pm.

[Sanibel]

Bertha enjoyed a tropical airmass as it crossed the mid-Atlantic, but has now entered the western basin synoptic that has been hostile so far this year.

It fed off this favorable environment to gain strength. Meanwhile there was a TUTT-type upper feature to its north that we didn't really see as well as we should have venting Bertha's outflow. So Bertha drew strength from this favorable tropical belt and had it pulled away by the TUTT in effect enhancing the cyclonic engine. Now Bertha has pulled-up into the full face of the shear and out of that favorable belt. I guess it will wind down now and maybe wipe out.

[Thunder44]

Could there be a dry air intrusion due to the shear?

Looks like shear has increased and it's entraining more dry air from the south and west.

[Chacor]

I wonder what's the record for fastest weakening.

[cheezyWXguy]

I wonder what's the record for fastest weakening.

I dont know but it looks to be weakening just as fast as it strengthened yesterday...

[dixiebreeze]

She seems a tad more westerly right now -- earlier she looked N of the tropical points and now right on them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[KWT]

The eye is closing on that loop dixie so its tough to tell the exact direction, I just wonder whether this rapid weakening will allow it to bend back to the WNW again for a breif while or whether its too far north now?

[wxman57]

The steering currents could steer her back west, now that she's weaker right? But if she does that she'll encounter even higher shear...

Let's take a look at the latest 700mb-400mb (10,000-20,000ft) mean flow as projected by the latest GFS:

Current map. Note the blocking high to its northwest over Bermuda:


Now the forecast for 10am CDT Wednesday. High near Bermuda weakening and moving NE as trof moves off east U.S. Coast:


Valid 10am Thursday. High building over the SE U.S., trof off the east U.S. Coast. High that was over Bermuda continues moving off to the northeast and out of the way of Bertha.


And by 10am CDT Friday, high pressure still moving off to the NNE north of Bertha. Deep trof off the east U.S. Coast. West and NW winds from the eastern U.S. nearly to Bermuda. Bertha would need internal propulsion to reach the U.S. under this flow:

[dixiebreeze]

I don't think the fat lady (Bertha) has sung her song yet.

[Buck]

I bet some good wobbling is about to begin.

[deltadog03]

Wxman, great job as usual, but what do you think about a possible decoupling of MLC and LLC?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Assuming the GFS charts plotted by WxMan57 are even close, Bertha sleeps with Luca Brazzi.

[wxman57]

Wxman, great job as usual, but what do you think about a possible decoupling of MLC and LLC?

If it gets really weak (sheared TS or depression) then it would track more with the lower level flow. That could take it on the west side of Bermuda before recurving. In 3-4 days, even the low-level flow will be coming off the East U.S. Coast. So no U.S. threat.

[Sanibel]

No amount of trying to pull that back west will work.

The eye is still there and on track. Just under sheared clouds.

I was trying to tell people to wait to see what it does when it hits the unfavorable west basin. This area was brutal to storms in the last two seasons.

[deltadog03]

Oh, I agree with you, the US threat is imo zero, but just thought this may shear out so much that it could decouple..

[KWT]

Mainland USA is no threat but obviously if the track were to shift a little back to the wes again then it would bring Bermuda back into play somewhat.

Sanibel, to an extent true though lets not forget it is only July 8th, the fact Bertha got as strong a sit did at all is a heck of an achievement!

[srainhoutx]

wxman57, deltadog03, Derek thank you for your voice of reason the past few days. Bertha had a big day yesterday for sure.