TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

Deep convection coming back.

[KWT]

Hurakan, right now it looks like a pretty standard July hurricane, sheared but still bursting decent amounts of convection, however for a breif 18hrs it looked like a powerful hurricane you'd tend to find later in the season.

[alan1961]

This is also connected to the Dundee site too

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/geobrowse.php

[HURAKAN]

Don't give up on Bertha just yet.

[wxman57]

FYI, on my GARP workstation, I just measured a 3 and 6-hr motion of Bertha.

3-hr - toward 310 deg. at 10.5 kts (1545Z-1845Z)
3-hr - toward 309 deg. at 10 kts (1845Z-2145Z)
6-hr - toward 309-310 deg. at a little over 10 kts

Still moving northwest at about the same speed all day. Most convection appears to be northeast of the center. I don't think a storm like this would qualify for a hurricane upgrade at this point.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 8.58 Bertha 2 0.37 Arthur
Total: 8.95


Bertha has the highest ACE in the Atlantic since Hurricane Félix, 2007.

[cpdaman]

FYI, on my GARP workstation, I just measured a 3 and 6-hr motion of Bertha.

3-hr - toward 310 deg. at 10.5 kts (1545Z-1845Z)
3-hr - toward 309 deg. at 10 kts (1845Z-2145Z)
6-hr - toward 309-310 deg. at a little over 10 kts

Still moving northwest at about the same speed all day. Most convection appears to be northeast of the center. I don't think a storm like this would qualify for a hurricane upgrade at this point.

i had 22.1 N 53.8 W at 1500Z and now 22.7 /55 at 2145 Z

which is more like 300 degrees i believe

[dixiebreeze]

Could Bertha skate more westerly if this ridge continues to build:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg

[cpdaman]

18Z gfs calls for the storm to be very close to bermuda (which is a slight left shift) but we shall see if that is consistent.

[dizzyfish]

Checking out things today and I see two things. ULL to her left and a high to her right.
Can she just shoot between those and go out to sea? Or, is it still too early to tell?

Or, am I nuts? lol

[cpdaman]

i would think if she strengthens she would shoot the gap but then again i don't know if the TUTT weakness is enough to move her at 55 longitude?

[jaxfladude]

Will this be the set-up for most of this season(as it relates to Bertha), or is it any given tropical cyclone? ....

[dizzyfish]

i would think if she strengthens she would shoot the gap but then again i don't know if the TUTT weakness is enough to move her at 55 longitude?

So if she stays weak she can miss that?

Sorry for the dumb questions.

[wxman57]

FYI, on my GARP workstation, I just measured a 3 and 6-hr motion of Bertha.

3-hr - toward 310 deg. at 10.5 kts (1545Z-1845Z)
3-hr - toward 309 deg. at 10 kts (1845Z-2145Z)
6-hr - toward 309-310 deg. at a little over 10 kts

Still moving northwest at about the same speed all day. Most convection appears to be northeast of the center. I don't think a storm like this would qualify for a hurricane upgrade at this point.

i had 22.1 N 53.8 W at 1500Z and now 22.7 55 at 2145 Z

which is more like 300 degrees i believe

That 22.1N/53.8W for 15Z was a forecast position. I'm measuring the actual position by putting my cursor on the screen and identifying the LLC at 22.1N/54.1W at 15Z. 53.8W is east of the convective band around the center at 15Z. Better yet, here's a screen shot of my workstation with the cursor at the NHC forecast position of 22.1N/53.8W at 15Z with the 15Z satellite. The center is clearly visible west of the NHC forecast position.

[cpdaman]

wxman would you think bertha would turn more Northward should she strengthen this evening, or is that tutt influence waning


also it appears she has gained an appendage on her far east side which stretches pretty far south along 50 W

[KWT]

So is it still heading NW or is there any subtle bend back towards the WNW. I should say that Bermuda still needs to watch out as the models are starting to shift back to the west just a little bit, not by much granted but with a weaker storm there will be a little less poleward pull I'd guess towards the weakness.

[tolakram]

NHC loops working again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

and some red is coming back.



I find the water vapor loop shows structure changes quite well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[cpdaman]

tolakram can you tell where the center is. is it on the south or south west side of convection?

[cpdaman]

re-strengthening? building convection on west side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

[tolakram]

tolakram can you tell where the center is. is it on the south or south west side of convection?

I assume it's on the west or south west side of the convection. I'm not very good at locating anything.