TC Bertha

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 070808

Bertha weakens throughout the day, but regains her footing.

No graphic at this time.

Central Atlantic...Category 1 Hurricane Bertha. This storm is not to be ruled out any time soon. Even though Big Bertha fell to a category 1 after being a major hurricane, I believe the lessening of intensity has slowed. Intensity should become pretty stationary at 80-85mph, and possibly 90mph as Bertha is going to be going over warmer waters. There may be a slow strengthening of Bertha. I think that the northwesterly motion will continue over the next day or two slightly slowing down.

Sights will soon turn to impact as Bermuda and later the east coast of the US will feel the waves pick up in the next day or so with gusty winds in Bermuda possible. I would still stay prepared in Bermuda as the slowing forward speed can change a forecast.

Fact789-Jonathan

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am personally not in agreement with the guidance.

If shear abates as expected, I think Bertha's small size will be conducive for rapid changes in intensity - and that means I think another bout of rapid intensification is possible. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Bertha back over 100 kt at this time tomorrow.

[NDG]

Lets see, in the last 6 hrs Bertha has gained .3 deg N & one whole degree west, yeah that's a continuing NW movement alright,

[Chacor]

08/00 20.5N 52.3W
08/06 21.1N 52.9W
08/12 21.8N 53.5W
08/18 22.4N 54.4W
09/00 22.8N 55.4W

24-hour change: +2.3/-3.1. Except for the last six hours, when it was much weaker, overall trend is still close to NW.

[HURAKAN]

[NDG]

08/00 20.5N 52.3W
08/06 21.1N 52.9W
08/12 21.8N 53.5W
08/18 22.4N 54.4W
09/00 22.8N 55.4W

24-hour change: +2.3/-3.1. Except for the last six hours, when it was much weaker, overall trend is still close to NW.

My point is that for the last 12hrs Bertha has been moving WNW, it better get back to a NW motion rightaway or its forecasted track will continue to shift westward, which will not happen right away because it is being influenced by the ridge over Bermuda and while it sits stationary and not start moving eastward Bertha will continue moving WNW.

[orion]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see lower shear for the near future - around 15 kts now and current tendency is decreasing. But, there is strong shear to the north and it's currently increasing in that area. SSTs are about 27 around Bertha as well as to her north west. Looks like convection is building back, especially southwest of the center. For a central pressure of 985mb, the steering currents look to me like they could push her a little west of what the current forecast is.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.GIF

I am thinking a westward movement and some increase in intensity tonight and tomorrow, then weakening again as she hits the higher shear and makes the turn towards the north.

jeff
orionweather.net

[jaxfladude]

NO more track shifts to the west..!!!

[NDG]

Don't worry, it should be more of a worry for Bermuda, chances of making it to the US are slim if any with the continuing troughing in the eastern US.

[JonathanBelles]

Don't worry, it should be more of a worry for Bermuda, chances of making it to the US are slim if any with the continuing troughing in the eastern US.

precisely why we dont want any more shifts to the west.

[tolakram]

Center starting to show.



Comparison ... about an hour apart:

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be strengthening again. I think it was 65 kt at the advisory and at least 70 kt now.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks to be re-wrapping deep convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears it is starting to restrengthen some. GO BERTHA GO, Become a cat3 again!!!

[Mecklenburg]

It appears it is starting to restrengthen some. GO BERTHA GO, Become a cat3 again!!!

no, become a cat. 4

[Thunder44]

It appears it is starting to restrengthen some. GO BERTHA GO, Become a cat3 again!!!

no, become a cat. 4

It won't be a Cat 3 or 4 anytime soon. 6z models have this at 65kts now, and ADT numbers are at TS strength. The convection looks a bit weaker then it was earlier tonight. The eye hasn't reappeared again either.

[Nimbus]

Looks like we will have plenty of time to watch especially if the first short wave misses.
I think we will see an eye again but to strengthen much would require warmer SST's low shear and an outflow channel.

The official forecast opinion is that:
"[quote][IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
BERMUDA/quote]

Big difference between a weak TS passing near Bermuda or a Hurricane. Hope we get a strong trough.

[HURAKAN]

First visible.

[KWT]

Bertha still seems to be heading NW though at a less sharp angle it appears then when it was a major hurricane. IMO looking at it right now it probably is still a hurricane but one that is really lacking any decent organisation at the present time other then the strong CDO which is still in place.

Track could still get close to Bermuda, offical NHC track is decently to the east but the main problem is the foward speed has dropped right away.

[Derek Ortt]

Bermuda can hande a hurricane very well. They had relatively little damage from Florence