TC Bertha

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Cyclenall
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#3261 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:37 pm

It's come back! I say 95+ knots right now, it looks even better then it did on Monday. The north side is much improved and it looks like Hurricane Emily (2005) without the deeper convection. The eye isn't as clear as it was on Monday...but we have to wait and see if it does.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3262 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:39 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Here is another super centeral/western Atlantic fish! Now it did come close to the islands, but it never made landfall.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3263 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:40 pm

The green line says what RI is all about,100 kts.

Image
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#3264 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:41 pm

Very impressive looking hurricane once again, NHC has this at 85kts but it could easily be stronger. Sat estimates only at 4.4 but it is increasing very rapidly. I've got a sneaky feeling we are going to have major hurricane Bertha for a second time very soon!
Which would be truely amazing given major hurricanes in July out where Bertha is are pretty uncommon, if not rare.

ps, raw T number looks more likely to be the strength with Bertha.
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#3265 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:42 pm

Looks to me like were looking at Cat 3 already...AMAZING Bertha...
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#3266 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:46 pm

I've got to admit the presentation of Bertha is once again very impressive, I wouldn't be all that surprised if this is a major hurricane right now again but there we go, looks like the fist idea works again.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3267 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:47 pm

Image

A lot of shear in it's path over the next day or so.

Image
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3268 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:52 pm

Bertha(TUNA) looks to be a borderline cat3 once again. Nice eye and nice outflow.
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Derek Ortt

#3269 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:52 pm

from 1345 to 1845, this has moved .5N and .6W

also, remember that the lon lines are closer together as we gain latitude
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#3270 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:53 pm

0_o

I've got to stop going to camp.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3271 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:56 pm

She has very good outflow again and that looks like it will continue for a while thanks to 2 TUTTs one to her west and another northeast. Wouldn't be surprised to see her as a Cat 4 pumping up a ridge over herself. I would think a stronger ridge would cause the short trough to swing north / and miss Bertha, not good.
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#3272 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:57 pm

So in other words Derek just west of NW, actually that seems to be about where it should be and there was I think it was going to more to the north then expected.

Will be interesting to see just how strong Bertha can get this time round, such a shame that we don't have recon going into the system right now. No reason why this can't get back to high end cat-3 like it probably was the first time round.
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JonathanBelles
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3273 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:07 pm

Image

I wonder if that second band will wrap around..
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3274 Postby cpdaman » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:09 pm

i don't think she will match her strength from yesterday

she is growing in size and it requires more energy and longer duration to rapidly intensify a large/medium size storm compared to a small storm which can have tremendous fluctuations.

at least that's what would make sense to me.


any new prognosis on the ridge near bermuda? is it eroding on the eastern size to give bertha a lane , is she supposed to stall? just got back from work
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3275 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:11 pm

HURAKAN,look now:



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 24:43:44 N Lon : 57:54:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.5mb/ 84.8kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 5.5 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -57.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Scorpion

#3276 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:18 pm

I'm surprised the T#'s are so low
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Re:

#3277 Postby TCmet » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:22 pm

The official number is a 3-hr average. Intensification was so fast that the average number is not a good indication of current strength. I'd say the 5pm T# will be about 5.0-5.5. There is a nearly complete eyewall now.

Scorpion wrote:I'm surprised the T#'s are so low
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Hurricanewatcher2007
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3278 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:24 pm

Its already 5.0 on ssd's site

09/1745 UTC 24.6N 57.8W T5.0/5.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3279 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:27 pm

Dose that mean BIG BERTHA is at the high end of cat.3 or low end of cat.3???? :?: :?:
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

#3280 Postby cpdaman » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:27 pm

since an eye has deveoped per visible the storm has moved more NW at 320 degrees or so IMO

between 1345 and 1515 it appeared to move wnw then since the eye developed more NW
Last edited by cpdaman on Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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