TC Bertha

[Cyclenall]

It's come back! I say 95+ knots right now, it looks even better then it did on Monday. The north side is much improved and it looks like Hurricane Emily (2005) without the deeper convection. The eye isn't as clear as it was on Monday...but we have to wait and see if it does.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Here is another super centeral/western Atlantic fish! Now it did come close to the islands, but it never made landfall.

[cycloneye]

The green line says what RI is all about,100 kts.

[KWT]

Very impressive looking hurricane once again, NHC has this at 85kts but it could easily be stronger. Sat estimates only at 4.4 but it is increasing very rapidly. I've got a sneaky feeling we are going to have major hurricane Bertha for a second time very soon!
Which would be truely amazing given major hurricanes in July out where Bertha is are pretty uncommon, if not rare.

ps, raw T number looks more likely to be the strength with Bertha.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks to me like were looking at Cat 3 already...AMAZING Bertha...

[KWT]

I've got to admit the presentation of Bertha is once again very impressive, I wouldn't be all that surprised if this is a major hurricane right now again but there we go, looks like the fist idea works again.

[tolakram]

A lot of shear in it's path over the next day or so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bertha(TUNA) looks to be a borderline cat3 once again. Nice eye and nice outflow.

[Derek Ortt]

from 1345 to 1845, this has moved .5N and .6W

also, remember that the lon lines are closer together as we gain latitude

[Squarethecircle]

0_o

I've got to stop going to camp.

[Nimbus]

She has very good outflow again and that looks like it will continue for a while thanks to 2 TUTTs one to her west and another northeast. Wouldn't be surprised to see her as a Cat 4 pumping up a ridge over herself. I would think a stronger ridge would cause the short trough to swing north / and miss Bertha, not good.

[KWT]

So in other words Derek just west of NW, actually that seems to be about where it should be and there was I think it was going to more to the north then expected.

Will be interesting to see just how strong Bertha can get this time round, such a shame that we don't have recon going into the system right now. No reason why this can't get back to high end cat-3 like it probably was the first time round.

[JonathanBelles]

I wonder if that second band will wrap around..

[cpdaman]

i don't think she will match her strength from yesterday

she is growing in size and it requires more energy and longer duration to rapidly intensify a large/medium size storm compared to a small storm which can have tremendous fluctuations.

at least that's what would make sense to me.


any new prognosis on the ridge near bermuda? is it eroding on the eastern size to give bertha a lane , is she supposed to stall? just got back from work

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,look now:



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 24:43:44 N Lon : 57:54:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.5mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 5.5 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -57.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Scorpion]

I'm surprised the T#'s are so low

[TCmet]

The official number is a 3-hr average. Intensification was so fast that the average number is not a good indication of current strength. I'd say the 5pm T# will be about 5.0-5.5. There is a nearly complete eyewall now.

I'm surprised the T#'s are so low

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Its already 5.0 on ssd's site

09/1745 UTC 24.6N 57.8W T5.0/5.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

[hurricanefloyd5]

Dose that mean BIG BERTHA is at the high end of cat.3 or low end of cat.3????

[cpdaman]

since an eye has deveoped per visible the storm has moved more NW at 320 degrees or so IMO

between 1345 and 1515 it appeared to move wnw then since the eye developed more NW