TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm.

[jaxfladude]

We all should take Bertha as an omen(good/bad) for the rest of the season....
I hope that all CV-type storms take same track(or similar) and out to sea w/o any landmass/island(s) getting hit head on......(no loops allowed Bertha!).

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83 hit it on the head, it gained it's intensity back.

If shear returns, I see quick weakening again. Small storms are notorious for rapid fluctuations.

[KWT]

Certainly is Hurakan looks like a major hurricane, nice looking eye and also the hurricane has grown in size a little bit since 18hrs ago.

Also hasn't got quite as strong as it did the first time round according to the T numbers but its still a major according to that.

[HURAKAN]

All you see in just 48 hours!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow that is just crazy! I agree, she looked better 2 days ago, but is still beautiful.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 24:55:32 N Lon : 58:07:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.8mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.4 5.4 5.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -56.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

Cat 3 in the next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

5.5

2008JUL09 204500 5.5 959.8/ -0.2 /102.0 5.5 5.7 5.8 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 4.24 -56.23 EYE 16 IR 24.93 58.13 COMBO 62.7

[storms in NC]

I am old school here. now look at this map and tell me Why would a Low go to a High. It don't make sense to me. Not when I have been told a low will go to a low but not a High. So what is up with this? From the look of this map a stall would be coming very shortly if not a turn to the west or east. But not straight up to the high. Okay pros Please help a old lady here.

[img][/img]

[HURAKAN]

Going up really fast:

2008JUL09 171500 3.8 989.7/ -0.1 / 61.0 3.8 4.1 5.9 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -1.46 -58.87 EYE 16 IR 24.46 57.66 COMBO 0.0
2008JUL09 174500 4.1 985.3/ -0.1 / 67.4 4.1 5.4 6.0 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 8.54 -58.60 EYE 16 IR 24.51 57.72 COMBO 0.0
2008JUL09 181500 4.4 980.5/ -0.1 / 74.6 4.4 5.4 5.9 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 6.74 -58.00 EYE 16 IR 24.66 57.78 COMBO 62.7
2008JUL09 184500 4.5 978.9/ -0.1 / 77.0 4.5 5.4 5.9 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 11.84 -57.63 EYE 18 IR 24.70 57.84 COMBO 62.7
2008JUL09 191500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 5.5 5.9 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 8.14 -57.66 EYE 17 IR 24.73 57.90 COMBO 62.7
2008JUL09 194500 5.0 969.8/ -0.2 / 90.0 5.0 5.6 5.8 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 7.04 -57.54 EYE 17 IR 24.86 57.96 COMBO 62.7
2008JUL09 201500 5.2 965.8/ -0.2 / 94.8 5.2 5.6 5.8 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 6.44 -56.71 EYE 18 IR 24.88 58.08 COMBO 62.7
2008JUL09 204500 5.5 959.8/ -0.2 /102.0 5.5 5.7 5.8 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 4.24 -56.23 EYE 16 IR 24.93 58.13 COMBO 62.7

From 1715 to 2045 the CI numbers have increased from 3.8 to 5.5. That's 1.7 / 3.5 hrs = 0.49 per hour!!

[wxman57]

I am old school here. now look at this map and tell me Why would a Low go to a High. It doesn't make sense to me. Not when I have been told a low will go to a low but not a High. So what is up this this. From the look of this map a stall would be coming very shortly if not a turn to the west or east. But not straight up to the high. Okay pros Please help a old lady here.

You're making the assumption that the high is stationary. It's not. The high center is forecast to retreat to the N-NNE over the next few days with Bertha rotating around the western side of the high.

[jaxfladude]

How Bertha got her groove back....

[KWT]

Looking very likely Bertha will indeed be upgraded to a major hurricane again, very impressive stuff have to admit for so early in the season!

[HURAKAN]

48 Hours Ago:



Now:

[wxman57]

Derek, check out the latest satellite imagery. Does it look like Bertha is showing signs of entering an ERC?

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot tell from the IR, and we don't have a recent microwave

From the pass earlier today and the WV imagery... the southern side is set up prime to trigger an EWRC with the dry air very near the core. This should confine the rainbands on that side. However, the northern side does not seem as favorable and there is a greater moisture envelope and a weaker moisture gradient. In fact, the rainbands do not seem to ahve the circularity there to allow for an EWRC

what may be happening is this is getting near its MPI

[Derek Ortt]

I'd feel more confident of an EWRC is this was headed west instead of north

[KWT]

Very interesting, so even if Bertha wanted to Derek it probably couldn't get much stronger, impressive for a system to get close to its MPI, wouldn't surprise me if that was the case given its early July and we do have likely a major hurricane on our hands again!

[wxman57]

I'd feel more confident of an EWRC is this was headed west instead of north

This IR image caught my eye (so to speak). Note the dark ring forming around the eyewall (a moat?):