Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[njweather]

All of the following have been initialized at 2008071100. Each image is at 144hrs.

UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... /slp24.png

CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png

Looks like GFS develops it most aggressively, followed by UKMET, then CMC, which shows some kind of weak low near the area...

[blp]

NOGAPS is picking it up as well.

96hr 850MB
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 85&tau=096

180hr 850MB
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 85&tau=180

Loop 850MB
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008071100

[blp]

Euro at 240hr:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8071100!!/

[KWT]

Well nearly all the models are picking this up though the GFS and the ECM seem to be the most agressive with the development of this low. The last time we saw this happen we saw Bertha develop so it does need to be closely watched, esp as the track looks more southerly as well.

[KWT]

The area doesn't look great right now with the southern region still showing convection but probably enhanced by the ITCZ. Still the models are fairly slow at development at first with only a weak low at first so I'm not expecting quick development however given low SAL, SSt's that are warm enough and shear not too bad plus the fact we've already seen Bertha form from here only a week ago all argues for development IMO.

The wave will need to be watched far more then Bertha because as Bertha exits a upper ridge forms behind it and this will keep this wave on a steady westward tracdk until Bertha totally lifts out of the way and by the time that happens this could well be a real threat to the Caribbean Islands. We shall have to wait and see.

[Meso]

06z GFS

114 Hours

[KWT]

Yep 06z still shows Bertha in the picture and our other low as well:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif

[cycloneye]

If you look at the cloud pattern,it looks like some kind of circulation is in the area,even though convection is not plenty at this time.

[KWT]

Yeah there does indeed seem to be some spin, whether or not it regains convection soon will determine whether it forms soon or a little further west as I personally expect, its like a less convective version of Bertha when it came off Africa.

[cycloneye]

Tafb 72 hour forecast.

[HURAKAN]

Convection making a comeback.

[KWT]

Yep its only weak but it is a start, I think the Dmax tomorrow will be the key to watch, it does require watching though. I do note there is some more stable air of to the NW closer to the Cape Verde islands but as long as it stays away from that it should be ok.

[tailgater]

Tropical predition center sees it at 72hr. forecast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[HURAKAN]

If it develops, I think this one will take more time than Bertha.

[KWT]

Yes tailgator thats interesting, also note that Bertha is still in the picture as well which could lead to a very complex forecast track for this wave coming off Africa if it can catch up around the same longitutde as Bertha before Bertha moves out of the way.

[KWT]

Well yeah it should do Hurakan as Bertha 08 really was the exception to the rule, I think given the model agreement development is quite likely to occur but how rapidly is another matter.

[Cyclone1]

If we get Two Cape Verde storms before July 15th, I will officially jump on the active season bandwagon.

[Dean4Storms]

Very interesting year ahead I'm afraid. If this is any indication of what the real CV Season will be like we are in for an exciting year TC formation and tracking wise.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Way too soon to make any bold stands, in my unofficial and amateur opinion, but if the European is right, lower heights near Florida might draw this towards Florida and the Southeast, or could even recurve it at the last minute. The Gulf looks safe. Of course, that all depends on the Euro being correct at 10 days.



Looks to be under a tad bit of shear now from the East, but that should improve, and a strong mid-level Easterly jet should help give it a kick start.




Disclaimer: This is an unofficial and amateur opinion, and Storm2K not only doesn't endorse it, they are probably a little embarrased every time I post.

[KWT]

The problem with the Euro is Bertha is still at 30N even at 168hrs, if it clears out quicker then ther eis a greater chance of heights building in behind it. There seems to be two options, the first is Bertha takes its sweet time getting out of the way like the 06z GFS and the 0z ECM and the weakness is still in place when this system comes along...or it gets out of the way so that by the time this system comes along a weak ridge has built back in and this outs the Caribbean Islands and also the east coast at greater risk.