Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Extremeweatherguy]

What would the general direction be, in terms of "landfall"?

As of right now (this is subject to change): The models want to keep this system hovering around the west coast of FL for a day or two before eventually lifting it N/NW toward the FL panhandle.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy Convection and a spin near Sarasota just south of
Tampa Bay.

[MiamiensisWx]

What would the general direction be, in terms of "landfall"?

It's far too early; firstly, we need a LLC. Secondly, the surface low will likely drift lethargically WSW and linger over the E GOM over the upcoming days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With that lingering, and warm SSTs in the upper 80s, gradual development is
likely. Also shear is not inhibiting.

[DAVE440]

Noticed this myself on regional florida radar shot. Here.... http://66.28.250.180/data/640x480/2xradard5_anim.gif

Spinning away...wheeeeeeeeeee

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nasty Squall west of Fort Myers in that area of convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

With that lingering, and warm SSTs in the upper 80s, gradual development is
likely. Also shear is not inhibiting.

The only real inhibiting factor is land. If the low moves over land at any point, then development cannot occur during that time. However, if it stays just offshore or if it can move further offshore, then development seems very possible, IMO.

[Jason_B]

With these lop-sided storms like this one you can't really focus too much on where exactly it makes landfall because the bad weather usually extends pretty far out. And that's if anything even does develop, can't really have a landfall without a actual storm first.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

True. The heaviest convection is offshore, but the center is still
near the coast, if it drifts further offshore, then gradual development is
likely.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is some interesting data per latest ASOS observations. Winds at Saint Petersburg/Clearwater International Airport have shifted from the southwest to the east:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KPIE.html

At the same time, Sarasota/Bradenton International Airport's winds have shifted from east to south:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSRQ.html

This could indicate that the surface low is reforming further south (SSW of Pinellas County, FL) in the vicinity of the thunderstorm activity, especially since low level vorticity is greatest in that vicinity.

[Ivanhater]

Would be interesting to get some Pros thoughts on this...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am seeing that too Miami- south of Tampa Bay and near Sarasota,
and a nasty squall west of naples/fort myers in the long range shot.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is some interesting data per latest ASOS observations. Winds at Saint Petersburg/Clearwater International Airport have shifted from the southwest to the east:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KPIE.html

At the same time, Sarasota/Bradenton International Airport's winds have shifted from east to south:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSRQ.html

This could indicate that the surface low is reforming further south (SSW of Pinellas County, FL) in the vicinity of the thunderstorm activity, especially since low level vorticity is greatest in that vicinity.

Possible new location of surface low per pertinent data:

[Noles2006]

Exciting!

MiamiensisWx - I can agree with that, with everything that I'm seeing.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is some interesting data per latest ASOS observations. Winds at Saint Petersburg/Clearwater International Airport have shifted from the southwest to the east:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KPIE.html

At the same time, Sarasota/Bradenton International Airport's winds have shifted from east to south:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSRQ.html

This could indicate that the surface low is reforming further south (SSW of Pinellas County, FL) in the vicinity of the thunderstorm activity, especially since low level vorticity is greatest in that vicinity.

Possible new location of surface low per pertinent data:

yeah... i mentioned that earlier... and agree

[Ivanhater]

EWG (or anyone else)...any updates from JB on this?

[ronjon]

I'd have to place my bet for an LLC to form just off Sarasota coast judging by RAD and surface obs.

[tpr1967]

Yeah, Tampa. Said earlier twist to the radar(possible circlation center) SW of Sarasota/Bradenton area. Lets watch the barometric pressure for any significant falls
in the next 6 to 12 hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG (or anyone else)...any updates from JB on this?

I wish, but unfortunately the answer is no.