Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[RL3AO]

Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No idea if it is near the surface yet, but Tampa radar suggests some kind of circulation SW of Tampa.


That convection stays up all night, I'd guess 95L in the morning, and maybe even an as available recon tasking for tomorrow afternoon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

And something really impressive about a thousand miles East of Delaware!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

This image is 3+ hours old (0:04 UTC = 8:04 EDT). The circulation now appears to be centered SW of the state, instead of over it.

Latest surface wind directions: http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... ineM00.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Several Vectors-
Dark Orange- 30 mph
1 purple vector- 45 mph
1 brown vector- 40 mph
Black vectors- are those 40+ indications?
Anyway, that is a lot of black vectors- if those are
indicative and not contaminated....

[RL3AO]

Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

And something really impressive about a thousand miles East of Delaware!

At least it doesn't show Bertha with an open low again.

[RL3AO]

Several Vectors-
Dark Orange- 30 mph
1 purple vector- 45 mph
1 brown vector- 40 mph
Black vectors- are those 40+ indications?
Anyway, that is a lot of black vectors- if those are
indicative and not contaminated....

Black is rain contaminated. You throw those out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks!!

[DAVE440]

Channel 6 Local met just addressed this. He said its just an upper level circulation thats going to bring us some rain. Also a tropical wave moving to the west (currently in the carribean) will pass to our south and may increase rain chance a bit in a few days.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Channel 8 local in Tampa said it is both an upper low and a surface low that developed and is trying to get its act together.

[ekal]

Are we confident this system won't move onshore in the next 12 hours? It is awfully close to the coast, and there is a southwest steering flow present across the state.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is supposed to move very little- weak steering currents- so it will
have time to develop before a ridge begans pushing it North by late
week into the Panhandle...I think.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WFTV Ch. 7 Tom Terry said that slow development was possible from this.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Ekal,

The system has been moving SW today, but the "bands" have been rotating around and coming across the state from the SW to the NE. The storms in the Tampa area were moving SW earlier in the day, but then started to head more Westerly as teh system as a whole started to meander away from the coast. A solid circulation has not yet been established on its east/northeast/north side, but it appears to be getting better organized by the minute.

As the high pressure ridge begins to advance to teh west from teh Atlantic, it will nudge this system further into the gulf. I still question whether the ridge will eb "shaped" properly to nudge it to the west and then northwest, or potentially send it further SW, then west, then have it stall in the gulf for a little while before heading the the N and NE again when the ridge begins to retreat once again. Strongest confidence is in the scenario of it heading further west and then up into the northern gulf states.

*see disclaimer about me not being a pro and not worth listening to* see the NHC for the story to trust.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS running. Broad surface low, with light anticyclonic flow at 200 mb in 12 hours.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

<---- sorry, I'm THE typo queen

[Ed Mahmoud]

bed time. Be interesting to see if this still looks good in the morning.

[ekal]

Thank you for that response, TIFG. It will be interesting to see how quickly the ridge steers it to the west.

And I actually did not notice the typos, after nine innings of staring at baseball.

[Duddy]

Wouldn't it be cool for us to wake up in the morning next to Cristobal?

[Jason_B]

Wouldn't it be cool for us to wake up in the morning next to Cristobal?

Eh...not really. I kinda want to get gas sometime this week without having to wait in a 2 mile long line.