ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Derek Ortt]

wxman57...what do you think of the GFDL taking even a weak storm (tropical depression) north into the central gulf. Will weak not mean west this time?

The new 12Z GFDL stalls it and takes it south to Columbia and kills it in 54hrs. I think it may be on Columbian crack.

the GFDL does NOT do that. That is an issue with their vortex tracker

an alternative tracker does follow it toward central Louisiana as a weak storm

[ROCK]

:uarrow: Looks pretty darn good for looking so bad.

agreed...a fledging TD/TS in the making......

[TheRingo]

that's some darn good looking banding to the north.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, IMO this is very close to being a td. Looking at the visible loop, I see low level clouds to the north moving in a way that would suggest that there is a llc, however there is nothing to support this on the southern side. personally, I think it will be able to close off a circulation by late tonight, but may not be upgraded until tomorrow when recon gets there.

[ROCK]

Ok whos going to break out the "Need more RECON" image with Walken....


seriously I wish they could have stayed out there a little longer.....

[GeneratorPower]

Ok but here's a GREAT example of why the pro-mets are saying what they are saying. Look below at the link, and as you are watching you'll notice the difference between 96L and 94L. 96L has some solid circulation in a big circle going all the way around the system. 94L doesn't have it, unfortunately. This visible is very clear that 94L does not have a very good circulation. It's frustrating but I just don't see it happening, wish I did to be honest. Maybe it will start soon.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[PTrackerLA]

It's really looking good this afternoon and convection is on the increase again. I agree with Ivanhater, this will get named tomorrow IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[ronjon]

What is so interesting today is that the whole wave system has basically positioned itself northward by several degrees latitude. Yesterday we were looking at a system hugging the SA coast. This afternoon, it looks like the whole wave has shifted north a couple of hundred miles. So, now we are looking at a system moving over the NW caribbean instead of CA - we now also have the wave moving over some of the highest oceanic heat content in the basin (near JAM, south of Cuba). Much more dangerous setup than 24 hrs ago even though we still don't have a closed circulation yet.

[TexasStorm]

Is it just me or is this thing already further north than all of the tracking shows?

UPDATE: wow.. I was about 1 minute too late on that post lol

[Stratosphere747]

It's been so broad that a consolidation to the N isn't to surprising (if in fact that's what is in the process of happening) and something we have seen many times over the years..

[wxman57]

wxman57...what do you think of the GFDL taking even a weak storm (tropical depression) north into the central gulf. Will weak not mean west this time?

The new 12Z GFDL stalls it and takes it south to Columbia and kills it in 54hrs. I think it may be on Columbian crack.

the GFDL does NOT do that. That is an issue with their vortex tracker

an alternative tracker does follow it toward central Louisiana as a weak storm

Doesn't smoke crack or doesn't stall it and take it south? Here's the model set I got in my email:

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.4 71.1 280./15.9
6 13.6 72.7 276./15.7
12 12.5 73.9 229./15.2
18 12.5 73.9 248./ .5
24 12.4 73.9 157./ .7
30 12.3 73.9 169./ 1.6
36 12.3 73.9 153./ .2
42 12.3 73.9 326./ .3
48 12.3 73.9 45./ .0
54 12.3 73.9 146./ .3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Stormcenter]

Hopefully the strong high to the north will help steer whatever this is away from the U.S.
There is a front (yes in July) scheduled to drop down south on Friday so
who knows how that will affect 94L if it's in the GOM. Anyway everything is
still in doubt and of course we still need something to form.

[gatorcane]

All I have to say is just look at the big picture. There is more than a "strong tropical wave" there in the Central Caribbean, its just a matter of time IMHO. How often do you see waves that look that nice?

[Stratosphere747]

It looks to have split the system and could be what we are seeing.

Initially lost the earlier 'center' then picked up a new one later on in the run moving thru the Channel and towards La.

[GeneratorPower]

All I have to say is just look at the big picture. There is more than a "strong tropical wave" there in the Central Caribbean, its just a matter of time IMHO. How often do you see waves that look that nice?

Seems like pretty often recently. Only to have these wonderful convective complexes do the proverbial poof seconds later. In fact, it seems like all we get these days is poof-bait.

[HURAKAN]

This system reminds me too much of Claudette 2003.

[wxman57]

It looks to have split the system and could be what we are seeing.

Initially lost the earlier 'center' then picked up a new one later on in the run moving thru the Channel and towards La.

I believe we're witnessing the northern part of a strong tropical wave interacting with the southeast side of an upper low, resulting in increased lift/convection in that area. Question is, what does the low do in the next 24-48 hrs? GFS moves it SW then W into the central Yucatan north of Belize. That's probably why the GFS takes a low center in near northern Belize on Sunday.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

~~~~~~~~~~
This things forming a circulation people.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think CalmBeforeStorm and hurricanelandfall are right. There seems to be some evident turning in that area. What do the pros have to say?

[GeneratorPower]

wxman57, does it not look like a circulation is starting at 14.5N 72.5W on visibles?