Derek Ortt wrote:wxman57 wrote:hurricanelandfall wrote:wxman57...what do you think of the GFDL taking even a weak storm (tropical depression) north into the central gulf. Will weak not mean west this time?
The new 12Z GFDL stalls it and takes it south to Columbia and kills it in 54hrs. I think it may be on Columbian crack.
the GFDL does NOT do that. That is an issue with their vortex tracker
an alternative tracker does follow it toward central Louisiana as a weak storm
Doesn't smoke crack or doesn't stall it and take it south? Here's the model set I got in my email:
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 18
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.4 71.1 280./15.9
6 13.6 72.7 276./15.7
12 12.5 73.9 229./15.2
18 12.5 73.9 248./ .5
24 12.4 73.9 157./ .7
30 12.3 73.9 169./ 1.6
36 12.3 73.9 153./ .2
42 12.3 73.9 326./ .3
48 12.3 73.9 45./ .0
54 12.3 73.9 146./ .3
STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.