ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ed Mahmoud]

The strong 200 mb level flow analyzed by WxMan57 may explain why the deep BAM aims farther South than the shallow BAM.


This is sort of a model thread comment, but Wxman57 didn't post that in the model thread. Or maybe he did and I am in the wrong thread now.

[curtadams]

Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.

I've always thought of wxman57 as a bear and Ortt as a bull. Are you guys doing the forum equivalent of crossdressing for this thread?

[Aric Dunn]

this is interesting.,.

sort of

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

then turn on nws fronts..

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours

Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.

The old bad Dvorak position

Still... this only has a 40-50% chance of becoming a TC... and the greatest liklihood remains in the Gulf of Mexico

only a few more hours to go before the proclamation from 505 UTC Friday about this having less of a chance than a bearded lady winning Miss America is verified

[bob rulz]

I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours

Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.

The old bad Dvorak position

Still... this only has a 40-50% chance of becoming a TC... and the greatest liklihood remains in the Gulf of Mexico

only a few more hours to go before the proclamation from 505 UTC Friday about this having less of a chance than a bearded lady winning Miss America is verified

I'd say that the chances of a bearded lady winning Miss America is less than 40-50%.

[Derek Ortt]

the proclamation I made Friday morning was a 48 hour prediction

the 40-50% chance is for development begining 48 hours from now

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours

Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.

The old bad Dvorak position

Still... this only has a 40-50% chance of becoming a TC... and the greatest liklihood remains in the Gulf of Mexico

only a few more hours to go before the proclamation from 505 UTC Friday about this having less of a chance than a bearded lady winning Miss America is verified

In my unofficial position as one of the fifty top amateurs who post on this forum, I'd go 50 to 60% total, with a 40% chance of a TS before the Yucatan.

Now, maybe, as has happened with 94L three times already in four days, I am getting suckered in by satellite presentation, but despite the lack of organization, as shown by today's recon, I really think a mid level center is trying to form about 15.5ºN and about 78.7ºW, and I'd say there is almost an even chance, despite less than favorable conditions, this will work itself to the surface by tomorrow afternoon's recon.

Even more unofficial, amateur, and un-endorsed by Storm2K than usual.

[PauleinHouston]

Eric, agreed, think plane has closed off a weak surface low IMHO, hence the update. Think MLC is better organized and wondering if the LLC may reform/reposition more under the observed convection.

[Scott_inVA]

Yep:
AL, 94, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 157N, 797W, 35, 1008, DB,

Noticed this was picked up by our model map software and Invest 94L and is now displaying a tropical storm icon on the maps. Usually that means a TS with next package (5PM EDT).

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is about where I would put a LLC if this had one near 15.4/15.7 and 79.5. So if this was a tropical storm it would be there. Winds would also support it.

[SkyDragon]

I will have to see the advisory to believe this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Eric, agreed, think plane has closed off a weak surface low IMHO, hence the update. Think MLC is better organized and wondering if the LLC may reform/reposition more under the observed convection.

Recon, just SW of apparent MLC, should have NW winds if a surface circulation existed, and they don't. Maybe tomorrow's flight.


If they do name this based on a very weak center well removed from storms and apparent MLC, I'd be a little surprised. If this really does form eventually, I would expect a center Northeast of where recon may have closed one off.


They didn't classify this a couple of days ago when it had defined West winds in the ABC islands, not sure why they'd do it now.

[Brent]

I will have to see the advisory to believe this.

Me too, I don't think there's an upgrade coming at 5. I don't see any evidence there should be.

I do think it's as close as it's ever been though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The use of 35 knots in SHIPs doesn't mean they thought there was a closed circulation, just that that was the highest winds expected with the wave, right?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still 94L at NRL...

[SkyDragon]

Yep:
AL, 94, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 157N, 797W, 35, 1008, DB,

Noticed this was picked up by our model map software and Invest 94L and is now displaying a tropical storm icon on the maps. Usually that means a TS with next package (5PM EDT).

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

I said that from this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008


From scotts post. Now this would be a very elongated LLC near that area if it is at all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon apparently climbing slightly to 925 mb level. There is clearly not a surface circulation under the apparent MLC, maybe they are trying to see how low the MLC is.

[tigergirl]

Still 94L at NRL...

NRL is still listing Christobal as noname...hasn't updated yet.

[Brent]

Yep:
AL, 94, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 157N, 797W, 35, 1008, DB,

Noticed this was picked up by our model map software and Invest 94L and is now displaying a tropical storm icon on the maps. Usually that means a TS with next package (5PM EDT).

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

I think it's just a 35 kt invest. ATCF still says 94.