ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3101 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:44 pm

The strong 200 mb level flow analyzed by WxMan57 may explain why the deep BAM aims farther South than the shallow BAM.


This is sort of a model thread comment, but Wxman57 didn't post that in the model thread. Or maybe he did and I am in the wrong thread now.
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Re: Re:

#3102 Postby curtadams » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.


I've always thought of wxman57 as a bear and Ortt as a bull. Are you guys doing the forum equivalent of crossdressing for this thread? :lol:
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#3103 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:52 pm

this is interesting.,.

sort of

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

then turn on nws fronts..
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Derek Ortt

Re: Re:

#3104 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours


Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.


The old bad Dvorak position

Still... this only has a 40-50% chance of becoming a TC... and the greatest liklihood remains in the Gulf of Mexico

only a few more hours to go before the proclamation from 505 UTC Friday about this having less of a chance than a bearded lady winning Miss America is verified
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Re: Re:

#3105 Postby bob rulz » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:04 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours


Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.


The old bad Dvorak position

Still... this only has a 40-50% chance of becoming a TC... and the greatest liklihood remains in the Gulf of Mexico

only a few more hours to go before the proclamation from 505 UTC Friday about this having less of a chance than a bearded lady winning Miss America is verified


I'd say that the chances of a bearded lady winning Miss America is less than 40-50%.
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Derek Ortt

#3106 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:05 pm

the proclamation I made Friday morning was a 48 hour prediction

the 40-50% chance is for development begining 48 hours from now
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Re:

#3107 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:05 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours


Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.


The old bad Dvorak position

Still... this only has a 40-50% chance of becoming a TC... and the greatest liklihood remains in the Gulf of Mexico

only a few more hours to go before the proclamation from 505 UTC Friday about this having less of a chance than a bearded lady winning Miss America is verified




In my unofficial position as one of the fifty top amateurs who post on this forum, I'd go 50 to 60% total, with a 40% chance of a TS before the Yucatan.

Now, maybe, as has happened with 94L three times already in four days, I am getting suckered in by satellite presentation, but despite the lack of organization, as shown by today's recon, I really think a mid level center is trying to form about 15.5ºN and about 78.7ºW, and I'd say there is almost an even chance, despite less than favorable conditions, this will work itself to the surface by tomorrow afternoon's recon.

Even more unofficial, amateur, and un-endorsed by Storm2K than usual. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3108 Postby PauleinHouston » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:07 pm

Eric, agreed, think plane has closed off a weak surface low IMHO, hence the update. Think MLC is better organized and wondering if the LLC may reform/reposition more under the observed convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3109 Postby Scott_inVA » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:16 pm

Yep:
AL, 94, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 157N, 797W, 35, 1008, DB,

Noticed this was picked up by our model map software and Invest 94L and is now displaying a tropical storm icon on the maps. Usually that means a TS with next package (5PM EDT).

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3110 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:19 pm

That is about where I would put a LLC if this had one near 15.4/15.7 and 79.5. So if this was a tropical storm it would be there. Winds would also support it.
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SkyDragon

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3111 Postby SkyDragon » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:23 pm

I will have to see the advisory to believe this.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3112 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:23 pm

PauleinHouston wrote:Eric, agreed, think plane has closed off a weak surface low IMHO, hence the update. Think MLC is better organized and wondering if the LLC may reform/reposition more under the observed convection.



Recon, just SW of apparent MLC, should have NW winds if a surface circulation existed, and they don't. Maybe tomorrow's flight.


If they do name this based on a very weak center well removed from storms and apparent MLC, I'd be a little surprised. If this really does form eventually, I would expect a center Northeast of where recon may have closed one off.


They didn't classify this a couple of days ago when it had defined West winds in the ABC islands, not sure why they'd do it now.
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Brent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3113 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:24 pm

SkyDragon wrote:I will have to see the advisory to believe this.


Me too, I don't think there's an upgrade coming at 5. I don't see any evidence there should be.

I do think it's as close as it's ever been though.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3114 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:25 pm

The use of 35 knots in SHIPs doesn't mean they thought there was a closed circulation, just that that was the highest winds expected with the wave, right?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3115 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:26 pm

Still 94L at NRL...
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SkyDragon

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3116 Postby SkyDragon » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:27 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:Yep:
AL, 94, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 157N, 797W, 35, 1008, DB,

Noticed this was picked up by our model map software and Invest 94L and is now displaying a tropical storm icon on the maps. Usually that means a TS with next package (5PM EDT).

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

I said that from this.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3117 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:28 pm

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008


From scotts post. Now this would be a very elongated LLC near that area if it is at all.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3118 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:30 pm

Recon apparently climbing slightly to 925 mb level. There is clearly not a surface circulation under the apparent MLC, maybe they are trying to see how low the MLC is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3119 Postby tigergirl » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:31 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Still 94L at NRL...

NRL is still listing Christobal as noname...hasn't updated yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3120 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:31 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:Yep:
AL, 94, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 157N, 797W, 35, 1008, DB,

Noticed this was picked up by our model map software and Invest 94L and is now displaying a tropical storm icon on the maps. Usually that means a TS with next package (5PM EDT).

18Z 15.7/-79.7/35kts/TS042008

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com


I think it's just a 35 kt invest. ATCF still says 94.
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