ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ronjon]

I'd say upgrade based on a broad center. The NHC said it was LIKELY to develop into a tropical depression or storm at their 8 AM discussion. Given 40 kt winds and potential to strenghten, I say the upgrade is almost automatic.

[hurricanefloyd5]

your kidding when did that happen? Did this happen while sleeping because this wasn't the case yesterday,but if this is the case then I am sorry for the faulse info!!!!!!!!

[RL3AO]

This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.

Its pretty simple. No closed surface circulation = no tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 04, 2008072012, , BEST, 0, 179N, 835W, 40, 1008, TS,

[Air Force Met]

There keeping Cristobal a tropical storm with the LLC 80 nmi away from the convection. This has a closed LLC with 51 knot flight level already found. I don't care if the LLC is slightly displaced from the convection. That will change as the upper low moves out.

Yep...and it is going to be a classic case of the LLC chasing the convection northward until it gets consolidated.

[cheezyWXguy]

This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.

Its pretty simple. No closed surface circulation = no tropical cyclone.

Are you talking about Dolly, cuz im pretty much positive it has a llc.

[RL3AO]

Hello Dolly.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al042008.invest

[Chacor]

40 knot TS Dolly is here then. Of course, not official until the advisory confirms it.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 04, 2008072012, , BEST, 0, 179N, 835W, 40, 1008, TS,

[cycloneye]

40 kts

[Air Force Met]

AFM what's your thinking on the location of the LLC.

Near 17.5 83...but it will be moving Nward towards the convection throughout the day.

[Sanibel]

The western Caribbean should boost this above the ULL's interference. It's just a matter of time now. The black IR is all you needed to see.

[Chacor]

Let's see what the models do on the next several runs when we get a defined LLC. I've been saying a powerful, strengthening hurricane will head NW and N instead of the wnw track the models have been showing. The globals keep it weak and are hooked onto the wnw scenario. This will likely be a powerful major hurricane in my opinion and TX/LA is at greatest risk.

Remember to include the personal forecast disclaimer, please!

[Air Force Met]

This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.

Its pretty simple. No closed surface circulation = no tropical cyclone.

I really want to know what you guys are talking about. It is closed.

[ronjon]

1008 mb pressure at 17.9N-83.5W as tropical storm Dolly at 11 AM.

[canegrl04]

Well good golly miss Molly.Its Dolly!

[Chacor]

By the way, I know this isn't about 94L, but if anyone missed the memo, it appears that Bertha will be kept alive for one more advisory at least, meaning we will have three named storms at the same time in July.

[bob rulz]

This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.

Well, if they find a closed low and winds are already at 40mph or more, like this one, then it goes straight to a tropical storm. If winds were still only 35mph then it would be a depression. It's really pretty simple.

[GeneratorPower]

I really want to know what you guys are talking about. It is closed.

Some folks have just been saying this for about 8 days now and it's a hard habit to break!

[perk]

AFM what's your thinking on the location of the LLC.

Near 17.5 83...but it will be moving Nward towards the convection throughout the day.

Thanks.