ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3681 Postby ronjon » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:29 am

I'd say upgrade based on a broad center. The NHC said it was LIKELY to develop into a tropical depression or storm at their 8 AM discussion. Given 40 kt winds and potential to strenghten, I say the upgrade is almost automatic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3682 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:29 am

your kidding when did that happen? Did this happen while sleeping because this wasn't the case yesterday,but if this is the case then I am sorry for the faulse info!!!!!!!!
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Re:

#3683 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:30 am

extradited wrote:This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.



Its pretty simple. No closed surface circulation = no tropical cyclone.
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#3684 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:30 am

AL, 04, 2008072012, , BEST, 0, 179N, 835W, 40, 1008, TS,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3685 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:30 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There keeping Cristobal a tropical storm with the LLC 80 nmi away from the convection. This has a closed LLC with 51 knot flight level already found. I don't care if the LLC is slightly displaced from the convection. That will change as the upper low moves out.


Yep...and it is going to be a classic case of the LLC chasing the convection northward until it gets consolidated.
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Re: Re:

#3686 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:31 am

RL3AO wrote:
extradited wrote:This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.



Its pretty simple. No closed surface circulation = no tropical cyclone.

Are you talking about Dolly, cuz im pretty much positive it has a llc.
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#3687 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:31 am

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#3688 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:31 am

40 knot TS Dolly is here then. Of course, not official until the advisory confirms it.
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#3689 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:31 am

Image

AL, 04, 2008072012, , BEST, 0, 179N, 835W, 40, 1008, TS,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3690 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:32 am

:uarrow: 40 kts
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3691 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:32 am

perk wrote:AFM what's your thinking on the location of the LLC.

Near 17.5 83...but it will be moving Nward towards the convection throughout the day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3692 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:32 am

The western Caribbean should boost this above the ULL's interference. It's just a matter of time now. The black IR is all you needed to see.
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3693 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:32 am

hurricanelandfall wrote:Let's see what the models do on the next several runs when we get a defined LLC. I've been saying a powerful, strengthening hurricane will head NW and N instead of the wnw track the models have been showing. The globals keep it weak and are hooked onto the wnw scenario. This will likely be a powerful major hurricane in my opinion and TX/LA is at greatest risk.

Remember to include the personal forecast disclaimer, please!
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#3694 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:33 am

RL3AO wrote:
extradited wrote:This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.



Its pretty simple. No closed surface circulation = no tropical cyclone.


I really want to know what you guys are talking about. It is closed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3695 Postby ronjon » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:33 am

1008 mb pressure at 17.9N-83.5W as tropical storm Dolly at 11 AM.
Last edited by ronjon on Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3696 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:34 am

Well good golly miss Molly.Its Dolly! 8-)
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#3697 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:34 am

By the way, I know this isn't about 94L, but if anyone missed the memo, it appears that Bertha will be kept alive for one more advisory at least, meaning we will have three named storms at the same time in July.
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Re:

#3698 Postby bob rulz » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:34 am

extradited wrote:This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.


Well, if they find a closed low and winds are already at 40mph or more, like this one, then it goes straight to a tropical storm. If winds were still only 35mph then it would be a depression. It's really pretty simple.
Last edited by bob rulz on Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#3699 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:35 am

Air Force Met wrote:I really want to know what you guys are talking about. It is closed.


Some folks have just been saying this for about 8 days now and it's a hard habit to break!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3700 Postby perk » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:35 am

Air Force Met wrote:
perk wrote:AFM what's your thinking on the location of the LLC.

Near 17.5 83...but it will be moving Nward towards the convection throughout the day.

Thanks.
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