ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It would have to relocate a good ways north or take one heck of a jog to the nw to miss the yucatan. I'm not looking for that to happen.

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It wouldn't have to relocate very far to the north to spend a significantly less amount of time over land.

[Aric Dunn]

honestly everyone .. i would not worry much about the Yucatan causing much harm to dolly ... she will only be over it for a very short time and is in the intensification portion of her life and the flat lands of the Yucatan wont do much.

[Aric Dunn]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

those are old .. whats the link

That's the 12z run. Those are the most recent.

link please?

[bob rulz]

Wow, that's impressive!

[weatherguru18]

honestly everyone .. i would not worry much about the Yucatan causing much harm to dolly ... she will only be over it for a very short time and is in the intensification portion of her life and the flat lands of the Yucatan wont do much.

Maybe over the Everglades. Folks, it's land. It certainly won't help her strengthen by any means.

[Chacor]

those are old .. whats the link

That's the 12z run. Those are the most recent.

link please?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[Sanibel]

SW half is still too weak and unconvected.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting to note the huge difference in the initialized location of the center ... when the 12z comes out for the global models its going to interesting since the initialized intensity and position are way different.. i imagine a decent northward shift in all there tracks..

[kevin]

honestly everyone .. i would not worry much about the Yucatan causing much harm to dolly ... she will only be over it for a very short time and is in the intensification portion of her life and the flat lands of the Yucatan wont do much.

Maybe over the Everglades. Folks, it's land. It certainly won't help her strengthen by any means.

Its flat land with plenty of surface water on it. Not exactly the everglades but certainly not your typical piece of land. Its also moving at a very fast speed and not over the entire landmass, and surrounded on three sides by ocean.

[Just Joshing You]

Surface water means jack all when I'm pretty sure a Hurricane needs water to a depth of 50m or something like that.

[Blown Away]

Nice little burst of convection on the N side of Dolly's LLC. Very clear on the visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[kevin]

Surface water means jack all when I'm pretty sure a Hurricane needs water to a depth of 50m or something like that.

Of course its not going to intensify. But the difference between a dry chunk of land and a tropical rainforest is pretty substantial when it comes to thunderstorms.

[Aric Dunn]

honestly everyone .. i would not worry much about the Yucatan causing much harm to dolly ... she will only be over it for a very short time and is in the intensification portion of her life and the flat lands of the Yucatan wont do much.

Maybe over the Everglades. Folks, it's land. It certainly won't help her strengthen by any means.

Its flat land with plenty of surface water on it. Not exactly the everglades but certainly not your typical piece of land. Its also moving at a very fast speed and not over the entire landmass, and surrounded on three sides by ocean.

wow i was not talking about it intensifying over land ... geez i was stating that systems during this phase of evolution have a tendency not to be affected by land as much. take Katrina as it crossed florida

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think the yucatans going to do much to the storm. Its moving fast, it doesn't really even have everything in place (convection over the LLC) - good outflow, etc. A spit of land a foot or two above sea level won't hurt it all that much.

[weatherguru18]

Surface water means jack all when I'm pretty sure a Hurricane needs water to a depth of 50m or something like that.

More like 100-150 meters.

[Aric Dunn]

nice burst of convection right over the center by the way.. we may see it approach hurricane strength sooner rather than later..

[Sanibel]

New burst near the center SW of the black IR center this am.


Good for those who called for development.

[Category 5]

honestly everyone .. i would not worry much about the Yucatan causing much harm to dolly ... she will only be over it for a very short time and is in the intensification portion of her life and the flat lands of the Yucatan wont do much.

It will just weaken her.

[Brent]

Discussion is out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1608.shtml

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the Yucatan will weaken it from a strong TS/weak Cat 1 to a minimal TS, but it will explode once again over the Gulf. Bret was a mere wave there and went all the way up to 125 kt. I am in good agreement with the NHC on the track but not intensity.