ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Hurricanewatcher2007, it does look interesting if you look at it like that but you are probably seeing the MLC, the current LLC is still clearly tucked into the deep convection, low level cloud streaming into that convective blob where the LLC IMO is. In what state its in, thats another matter!

[TTheriot1975]

I would say it looks that way too...there is a burst of clouds that seem to be moving more north with the circulation around it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The western gulf of mexico including Texas
and Mexico will have to watch this very
closely. Especially South Texas.
What Dolly does over the Yucatan has
implications for intensity forecasts thereafter
and into the time period when it moves
into Texas.

[Jason_B]

If you look at this system as a whole, whether or not there's a new LLC, it's heading in the general direction as the NHC cone. So yes I have to agree with those who say the NHC is on with this one.

[funster]

If you look at this system as a whole, whether or not there's a new LLC, it's heading in the general direction as the NHC cone. So yes I have to agree with those who say the NHC is on with this one.

Most definitely - it's a big cone though!

[Cape Verde]

I don't see that "Cape Verde."

Then it might be the fact that I upgraded to a new java download today. The forecast points are messed up on all my maps from NOAA.

[stevetampa33614]

If you look at this system as a whole, whether or not there's a new LLC, it's heading in the general direction as the NHC cone. So yes I have to agree with those who say the NHC is on with this one.

Im 1-0 on this forum so far. So hear goes.

Looking at the Rainbow loop. The burst of convection where the LLC is MOVING to the center of the storm. I do no not believe the center will make landfall . Its LLC is sliding Neast.

The last 2 frames you see the blow up and then slide.

[KWT]

What I am seeing is the MLC dropping down towards the LLC, I dare say the LLC has also moved a little bit further north then it otherwise would do and if this keeps up the two will get stacked up before the Yucatan. MLC now just to the north of the deep convective burst.

Center should strengthen under that strong convective burst, wonder what recon will show?!

[HarlequinBoy]

[stevetampa33614]

If you look at this system as a whole, whether or not there's a new LLC, it's heading in the general direction as the NHC cone. So yes I have to agree with those who say the NHC is on with this one.

Im 1-0 on this forum so far. So hear goes.

Looking at the Rainbow loop. The burst of convection where the LLC is MOVING to the center of the storm. I do no not believe the center will make landfall . Its LLC is sliding Neast.

The last 2 frames you see the blow up and then slide.

Oh ya Infrared clearly shows it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[funster]

Seems to be a bit more convection off to the west of Dolly now - maybe that's a sign the ULL's influence is finally fading.

[PTrackerLA]

We need a few more hours of satellite (and of course recon) to confirm but IMO the center is nearing 20 north. The vigorous MLC continues to better in appearance and the LLC will eventually align with it. My vote is for Dolly to pass just north of Cozumel and clipping the Yucatan.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

National Hurricane Center I agree with them. I posted a forecast
track a couple days ago for Dolly, at that time 94L, and had it
going into South Texas/North Mexico. I'm getting
better at forecasting paths of tropical systems, finally.

Nevertheless, I do hope that this does NOT get strong
because I HATE to see people suffer. I saw the pictures of Rita
and Katrina and the damage and felt terrible realizing
how much suffering people went through.

[Derek Ortt]

This is how it looks to me!

From another pro met

Stop looking north of the convection. There is nothing there

This is crossing the Yucatan

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even if the center does reform a degree farther North, I'd remind people that Houston is about 4º North of the forecast point, and assuming the forecast track is otherwise close, especially with the curvature of the coast, Houston is still probably not getting a direct visit from Dolly.


If the center reforms over the Isla de Juventud, then I'd worry.

[stevetampa33614]

What do you guys think.

[Steve]

>>Seems to be a bit more convection off to the west of Dolly now - maybe that's a sign the ULL's influence is finally fading.

As it has been backing off to the SW, the pattern reversal has been improving the environmental conditions all day long. That should continue leading to a pretty calm upper environment as the reversal completes. Question are does the forward speed continue and does the proverbial snowball start rolling downhill as the heat engine (that is a hurricane) attempts to crank. Only time will tell.

Steve

[whereverwx]

Image

[Steve]

>>What do you guys think.

Spinning in and revolving around a more central axis. JMO

Steve

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What do you guys think.

I think it is moving west towards the Yucatan. Sometimes the outflow/shearing
of systems can confuse people about the direction.