ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
stevetampa33614

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4521 Postby stevetampa33614 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:39 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
stevetampa33614 wrote:Ya its gonna skirt Yucatan. The CoC and under the MLC is an LLC forming as I can see Its going to either Brush it or hit Cancun dead on. Its very significant because it puts more of texas into play. Possibly to the LA border.


Shhh.... but I think that's right.



Said it 20 pages ago. Dolly wasnt happy with its LLC so far from the convection.
0 likes   

mattpetre
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 510
Age: 53
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:20 pm
Location: Missouri City,TX & Galleria
Contact:

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4522 Postby mattpetre » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:40 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
mattpetre wrote: None of us like to be quoted... pro and am alike.


I don't mind being quoted...but being quoted incorrectly is what I have a problem with...and it happens to all pro-mets all the time. I corrected a wing commander once during a battle staff meeting (during a war no less) because he quoted me incorrectly (and then was told by the CoS that that was a no-no). He claimed I had changed my forecast and it was now worse than it had been in previous days...and I had been very consistent. I nailed a dust storm's onset 5 days out and nobody was going to steal my glory! :lol:


That's why we don't like to be quoted. It usually means the person doing that is putting their own spin on our words. Nothing much we can do other than request the ability to defend our initial statements. BTW, did you feel misquoted in this particular case? You seemed to be agreeing that Dolly may not feel much effect from the Yucatan, is that a bad inference?
0 likes   

User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#4523 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:40 pm

My sister (who lives near Beaumont and just bought a house there) is currently on vacation in Florida. She has NO IDEA there's a storm heading for the GOM in the general direction of the Texas coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4524 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:42 pm

jeff wrote:State of Texas activation will begin at 800am Monday AM.

H-72 was at 700pm
H-36 at 700am Tuesday
H-0 is set for 700pm Wed.

Evacaution and fuel teams being preped Monday for S TX.

All 34 agencies in state Hurricane Response Plan will fully activate at 800am Tuesday.

We are going to be cutting it very close if mass evac is needed for the valley. Requires at least 1300 busses for special needs.

Lots of desicions coming on Monday. That is without any track changes...I thin NHC is too far south.



You think its going to be closer to maybe the middle texas coast? I guess its time to wait and see... thanks for your input jeff!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Innotech
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1031
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4525 Postby Innotech » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:43 pm

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdFusion
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 pm
Location: Addison, TX

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4526 Postby ColdFusion » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:44 pm

Innotech wrote:should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?


Nah, leave that to Cuba.
0 likes   

User avatar
Shawee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:14 am
Location: New Orleans
Contact:

Re:

#4527 Postby Shawee » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:44 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:My sister (who lives near Beaumont and just bought a house there) is currently on vacation in Florida. She has NO IDEA there's a storm heading for the GOM in the general direction of the Texas coast.


time to make that call to her me thinks...
0 likes   

User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4528 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:45 pm

I always look for the opinions of the pro mets here. I give their opinions extra weight. I do not hold their opinons to a biblical standard any more than I hold the NHC to their predictions.

All have been wrong in the past, and quite often they've been quite accurate. Often they disagree with each other.

It's all part of the evidence that we weigh during the course of one of these storms. If weather forecasters knew exactly what would happen, we wouldn't hear the routine "30% chance of showers today." Either say no chance or 100% chance. It can't be done, and we don't really expect it.

All we can say with 100% certainty is that it will be on the other side of the Yucatan tomorrow headed generally toward south Texas/northern Mexico. That's because tomorrow morning is about 12 hours away. Where we then think the storm will go or how it will develop is going to have to wait until then. Nobody, not the NHC, or a pro met can guarantee where this storm will make landfall tonight. And we shouldn't expect them to do so, either.
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdFusion
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 pm
Location: Addison, TX

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4529 Postby ColdFusion » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:45 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:You think its going to be closer to maybe the middle texas coast? I guess its time to wait and see... thanks for your input jeff!!


Well a mid texas strike sure would give Houston some rain!
0 likes   

stevetampa33614

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4530 Postby stevetampa33614 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:45 pm

Middle Texas Coast in play.
Last edited by stevetampa33614 on Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4531 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:46 pm

Innotech wrote:should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?


The NHC doesn't issue watches or watchings, governments do.
0 likes   

Jagno
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:40 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4532 Postby Jagno » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:46 pm

Hmmmmmmmmmm, but we still have our own military at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba..... :eek:
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4533 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:47 pm

Viper54r wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Attn Storm2K archivist: Please note the caveats when "documenting."

No need to get bent out of shape, I guess I should have put I agree with you


That would help...and nobody is bent out of shape...its just that people (all people) have a tendency to half-document what the weather man says...

And since most of us are professional liars, we always leave ourselves a way out. :D
0 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1251
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4534 Postby Nederlander » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:47 pm

GITMO is on the far east side of Cuba
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5907
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4535 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:47 pm

Cancun Radar: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

Most of the convection is east and north of Cozumel.....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#4536 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:47 pm

hey boca,

interesting IR loop. I wonder if the engine is starting or if that convection off to the NE is going to fizzle and blow up again later or tomorrow closer to the 'center.' That will determine how far up the coast the various impacts might be felt and what we're actually going to end up with. Tomorrow is going to be a great day for tracking IMHO. I'm understanding the mid-level ridge, especially with the deep trough coming down Wed-Thursday. So I'm like a lot of the pros in that the end-game might be a difference of a few degrees further up the TX Coast (if that). But the convection should help tell the story if it sustains. Also looking forward to the 00z early cycle guidance with the new information in. I'm going to see if anything is out yet.

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
Innotech
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1031
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4537 Postby Innotech » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:49 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Innotech wrote:should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?


The NHC doesn't issue watches or watchings, governments do.

well the Cuban govt then. Cause they are going to feel this. And might be right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4538 Postby vaffie » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:49 pm

it is SO darn impressive right now. it almost looks like an eye could appear by midnight at this rate.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4539 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:50 pm

Looks impressive and I really think the whole thing is shifting way north. I also think it may only clip the Yucatan.
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4540 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Oh, and one more tip before bed. Follow the convection, not the weak LLC.


The Deepest (black shaded) convection is now near the Western Cuban Tip. Is it possible the LLC might reposition even further NE? I"m thinking if it's that far back huge implication on strength and possible track adustments.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests