ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[stevetampa33614]

Ya its gonna skirt Yucatan. The CoC and under the MLC is an LLC forming as I can see Its going to either Brush it or hit Cancun dead on. Its very significant because it puts more of texas into play. Possibly to the LA border.

Shhh.... but I think that's right.

Said it 20 pages ago. Dolly wasnt happy with its LLC so far from the convection.

[mattpetre]

None of us like to be quoted... pro and am alike.

I don't mind being quoted...but being quoted incorrectly is what I have a problem with...and it happens to all pro-mets all the time. I corrected a wing commander once during a battle staff meeting (during a war no less) because he quoted me incorrectly (and then was told by the CoS that that was a no-no). He claimed I had changed my forecast and it was now worse than it had been in previous days...and I had been very consistent. I nailed a dust storm's onset 5 days out and nobody was going to steal my glory!

That's why we don't like to be quoted. It usually means the person doing that is putting their own spin on our words. Nothing much we can do other than request the ability to defend our initial statements. BTW, did you feel misquoted in this particular case? You seemed to be agreeing that Dolly may not feel much effect from the Yucatan, is that a bad inference?

[LAwxrgal]

My sister (who lives near Beaumont and just bought a house there) is currently on vacation in Florida. She has NO IDEA there's a storm heading for the GOM in the general direction of the Texas coast.

[Yankeegirl]

State of Texas activation will begin at 800am Monday AM.

H-72 was at 700pm
H-36 at 700am Tuesday
H-0 is set for 700pm Wed.

Evacaution and fuel teams being preped Monday for S TX.

All 34 agencies in state Hurricane Response Plan will fully activate at 800am Tuesday.

We are going to be cutting it very close if mass evac is needed for the valley. Requires at least 1300 busses for special needs.

Lots of desicions coming on Monday. That is without any track changes...I thin NHC is too far south.

You think its going to be closer to maybe the middle texas coast? I guess its time to wait and see... thanks for your input jeff!!

[Innotech]

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?

[ColdFusion]

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?

Nah, leave that to Cuba.

[Shawee]

My sister (who lives near Beaumont and just bought a house there) is currently on vacation in Florida. She has NO IDEA there's a storm heading for the GOM in the general direction of the Texas coast.

time to make that call to her me thinks...

[Cape Verde]

I always look for the opinions of the pro mets here. I give their opinions extra weight. I do not hold their opinons to a biblical standard any more than I hold the NHC to their predictions.

All have been wrong in the past, and quite often they've been quite accurate. Often they disagree with each other.

It's all part of the evidence that we weigh during the course of one of these storms. If weather forecasters knew exactly what would happen, we wouldn't hear the routine "30% chance of showers today." Either say no chance or 100% chance. It can't be done, and we don't really expect it.

All we can say with 100% certainty is that it will be on the other side of the Yucatan tomorrow headed generally toward south Texas/northern Mexico. That's because tomorrow morning is about 12 hours away. Where we then think the storm will go or how it will develop is going to have to wait until then. Nobody, not the NHC, or a pro met can guarantee where this storm will make landfall tonight. And we shouldn't expect them to do so, either.

[ColdFusion]

You think its going to be closer to maybe the middle texas coast? I guess its time to wait and see... thanks for your input jeff!!

Well a mid texas strike sure would give Houston some rain!

[stevetampa33614]

Middle Texas Coast in play.

[HURAKAN]

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?

The NHC doesn't issue watches or watchings, governments do.

[Jagno]

Hmmmmmmmmmm, but we still have our own military at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.....

[Air Force Met]

Attn Storm2K archivist: Please note the caveats when "documenting."

No need to get bent out of shape, I guess I should have put I agree with you

That would help...and nobody is bent out of shape...its just that people (all people) have a tendency to half-document what the weather man says...

And since most of us are professional liars, we always leave ourselves a way out.

[Nederlander]

GITMO is on the far east side of Cuba

[MGC]

Cancun Radar: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

Most of the convection is east and north of Cozumel.....MGC

[Steve]

hey boca,

interesting IR loop. I wonder if the engine is starting or if that convection off to the NE is going to fizzle and blow up again later or tomorrow closer to the 'center.' That will determine how far up the coast the various impacts might be felt and what we're actually going to end up with. Tomorrow is going to be a great day for tracking IMHO. I'm understanding the mid-level ridge, especially with the deep trough coming down Wed-Thursday. So I'm like a lot of the pros in that the end-game might be a difference of a few degrees further up the TX Coast (if that). But the convection should help tell the story if it sustains. Also looking forward to the 00z early cycle guidance with the new information in. I'm going to see if anything is out yet.

Steve

[Innotech]

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?

The NHC doesn't issue watches or watchings, governments do.

well the Cuban govt then. Cause they are going to feel this. And might be right now.

[vaffie]

it is SO darn impressive right now. it almost looks like an eye could appear by midnight at this rate.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Brent]

Looks impressive and I really think the whole thing is shifting way north. I also think it may only clip the Yucatan.

[HouTXmetro]

Oh, and one more tip before bed. Follow the convection, not the weak LLC.

The Deepest (black shaded) convection is now near the Western Cuban Tip. Is it possible the LLC might reposition even further NE? I"m thinking if it's that far back huge implication on strength and possible track adustments.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html