ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Steve]

Don't look, read:

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



Steve

[HouTXmetro]

Mexico has been quite the Hurricane magnet the last few years.

[HURAKAN]

If oil companies are going to evacuate their platforms, they must start now or it's going to be too late since Dolly is not wasting time in its motion.

[Sanibel]

It will be exiting the upwelling area soon just as it is doing a muscular wrap of its south side. Best convection form yet.

[Chacor]

I can tell you this Chevron has decided to evacuate its platform 80 miles south of Galveston, so they must know something we don't, because if it would be going in around Brownsville they would not be evacuating that platform.

It could simply be a precautionary move, since the southern half of the Texas coast is in the cone.

[Bane]

I can tell you this Chevron has decided to evacuate its platform 80 miles south of Galveston, so they must know something we don't, because if it would be going in around Brownsville they would not be evacuating that platform.

i would think they would be evacuating regardless as the storm is close enough that it could affect them.

[americanrebel]

The lady I talked to, she doesn't know how long it will stay evacuated, could be for 2 nights, or much longer.

[jabman98]

Don't look, read:

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



Steve

The new written updates weren't loading for me. Wonky computer, I think. The visuals were updated, but not the written stuff. Weird.

[LAwxrgal]

Question: Since Dolly is bookin' it W-WNW underneath that strong ridge, wouldn't that give her less time to organize and be stronger at final landfall?

[oyster_reef]

I can tell you this Chevron has decided to evacuate its platform 80 miles south of Galveston, so they must know something we don't, because if it would be going in around Brownsville they would not be evacuating that platform.

It could simply be a precautionary move, since the southern half of the Texas coast is in the cone.

Galv area offshore could be getting 20-30 foot seas... even if the storm hits brownsville area.

[gatorcane]

Question: Since Dolly is bookin' it W-WNW underneath that strong ridge, wouldn't that give her less time to organize and be stronger at final landfall?

Dolly will slow down as the weakness is created to the North of it allowing her to strengthen.

[gboudx]

From jeff.

At 1000am A hurricane Watch is issued for the TX coast from Port O Connor to Brownsville. This includes Calhoun County southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is issued from San Luis Pass to Port O Connor. This includes Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria counties.

Significant impact changes are going to be needed based on revising forecast track. Guidance tracks have shifted northward this morning and now show direct impact as far northward at Matagorda Bay.

Current NHC intensity forecast is now a strong cat 1...need to plan for a cat 2.

[Sanibel]

Question: Since Dolly is bookin' it W-WNW underneath that strong ridge, wouldn't that give her less time to organize and be stronger at final landfall?

Yes and no. While it would give it less time to develop that wouldn't be a factor if it rapidly intensified. Hurricane Charley at 22mph forward speed being a good example.

[LAwxrgal]

Question: Since Dolly is bookin' it W-WNW underneath that strong ridge, wouldn't that give her less time to organize and be stronger at final landfall?

Dolly will slow down as the weakness is created to the North of it allowing her to strengthen.

Ok gotcha. Thanks for clarifying, Gatorcane.

[Sanibel]

I think we can scrap any calls for south trends.

[Wx_Warrior]

Morning all....I see models still trend towards South Texas/Mexico. It did spend some time over the 'tan.

[gatorcane]

To all members. This is a great link that Derek Ortt pointed me to for looking at SAT images of Dolly and other areas of interest. They are not JAVA-based so they load quickly:

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[sunny]

Watches are going up:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[LAwxrgal]

Looks like all systems go for Miss Dolly. The 'missing center' is now clear and evident, and convection is starting to wrap completely around it:

[img] http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... latest.gif[/img]

[Aric Dunn]

We are probably going to have some issues in southern texas in a couple days.