ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[93superstorm]

Looks like some deep convection around the center is exploding. About to start a steady intensification

[stevetampa33614]

Its high, but not extremely high. Its not like the W Caribbean.

Bertha likely became a category 4 hurricane under heat content much lower than that. The waters it is traveling over will support a category 5 hurricane.

Bertha was only a 3 I think.

[Category 5]

[Stephanie]

It looks like Dolly left a "little Dolly" behind her. Kind of like "Aliens" leaving a pod behind!

I guess we'll see. Dolly can suck away the energy of that piece if she gets stronger.

She's loving that Gulf!

[Sanibel]

The ULL cut up and into Dolly wedging off that piece left behind.

[RL3AO]

Bertha was only a 3 I think.

NHC said in an advisory that it was probably 115kt when they had it at 105.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tropical Storm Dolly has a large squall over the Yucatan
and another squall that is southwest of Florida's west coast.
This is a big storm. Squalls extend out 600 miles from the center.

[Sanibel]

You could see Dolly's upper outflow clouds off to the west here at sunset.

[njweather]

Any thoughts on what will happen with the piece Dolly left behind?

I'm assuming it'll just get pulled toward what will soon be a hurricane...

[stevetampa33614]

The ULL cut up and into Dolly wedging off that piece left behind.

Ya we may have to watch that piece of energy dolly is leaving behind.

The point is that the waters Dolly is traveling over a sufficient for a category 5 hurricane.

I kind of disagree with you. It doesnt have enough time to do that. This isnt wilma, its not September and it sure as heck isnt gonna get that big. Forecast calls for maybe a cat 2

If it bombs to a Cat - 5 I will permaban myself from this forum. There is no way.

[ronjon]

yep, I think we are seeing early stages of eye development - the oceanic heat content was mentioned this morning by NHC at 11 AM:

...IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29 CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS
LIKELY..

[gatorcane]

Indeed Dolly is starting to really organize now. She wasn't earlier today but now she really is getting her act together. She has a nice CDO developing, maybe even an eye in the making.

Let's pray she does not strengthen too much more.

[stevetampa33614]

The ULL cut up and into Dolly wedging off that piece left behind.

Well its tropical so there is a chance, but it probably gets pulled up into Hurricane Dolly.


Anybody else think this is starting to finally look very good on satelitte?

[ronjon]

Is Dolly opening her eye?

[HurricaneHunter914]

That seems like rapid intensification to me. Dolly already looks like a hurricane. I wonder what recon will find when they make their way back to the center/eye.

[Ed Mahmoud]

For what it is worth, looking at 0Z NAM simulated radar (I will be headed for bed before any other 0Z models come out, a W-NW path out to about 18Z, with an apparent suddent turn more NW aimed at BRO. At 6Z, still offshore, almost parallel to the Coast, just offshore BRO.



I don't believe it, but I know a few people will be more excited with a Texas landfall. Belongs in model thread, I know, but that is lonely right now before the main 0Z models

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_ref_l_loop.shtml

[Stephanie]

She needs to close up a bit more on the NE section, but I think she's already a hurricane myself. Just waiting for her to blink.

[loro-rojo]

Im surprised at how quickly this system has gotten its act together. It looks to me like a 60kt system, or even possibly a hurricane already.

[RL3AO]

This will be an exciting pass though the center for recon.

[Javlin]

Yea she is starting to get that look and the outflow is just beautiful with this one.Boy I kept reading TUTT or ULL to the S and I am going WTH and sure enough a smidgen still hanging around.Those ULLs can be tough and aggravating when making a forcast and you have to give credit while we were rasing eyebrows (some of us) the NHC got right.Me I probably out on the street in food bank line