ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
93superstorm
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:41 am

#5861 Postby 93superstorm » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:50 pm

Looks like some deep convection around the center is exploding. About to start a steady intensification
0 likes   

stevetampa33614

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5862 Postby stevetampa33614 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:50 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Its high, but not extremely high. Its not like the W Caribbean.
Image

Bertha likely became a category 4 hurricane under heat content much lower than that. The waters it is traveling over will support a category 5 hurricane.


Bertha was only a 3 I think.
0 likes   

User avatar
Category 5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10074
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:00 pm
Location: New Brunswick, NJ
Contact:

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5863 Postby Category 5 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:52 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5864 Postby Stephanie » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:54 pm

It looks like Dolly left a "little Dolly" behind her. Kind of like "Aliens" leaving a pod behind! :eek:

I guess we'll see. Dolly can suck away the energy of that piece if she gets stronger.

She's loving that Gulf!
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5865 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:55 pm

The ULL cut up and into Dolly wedging off that piece left behind.
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5866 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:56 pm

stevetampa33614 wrote:
Bertha was only a 3 I think.


NHC said in an advisory that it was probably 115kt when they had it at 105.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#5867 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:56 pm

Tropical Storm Dolly has a large squall over the Yucatan
and another squall that is southwest of Florida's west coast.
This is a big storm. Squalls extend out 600 miles from the center.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5868 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:57 pm

You could see Dolly's upper outflow clouds off to the west here at sunset.
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

njweather
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 169
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:45 pm
Location: Washington, DC

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5869 Postby njweather » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:57 pm

Any thoughts on what will happen with the piece Dolly left behind?

I'm assuming it'll just get pulled toward what will soon be a hurricane...
0 likes   

stevetampa33614

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5870 Postby stevetampa33614 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:59 pm

Sanibel wrote:The ULL cut up and into Dolly wedging off that piece left behind.


Ya we may have to watch that piece of energy dolly is leaving behind.

The point is that the waters Dolly is traveling over a sufficient for a category 5 hurricane.


I kind of disagree with you. It doesnt have enough time to do that. This isnt wilma, its not September and it sure as heck isnt gonna get that big. Forecast calls for maybe a cat 2

If it bombs to a Cat - 5 I will permaban myself from this forum. There is no way.
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4830
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5871 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:59 pm

yep, I think we are seeing early stages of eye development - the oceanic heat content was mentioned this morning by NHC at 11 AM:

...IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29 CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS
LIKELY..
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5872 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:04 pm

Indeed Dolly is starting to really organize now. She wasn't earlier today but now she really is getting her act together. She has a nice CDO developing, maybe even an eye in the making.

Let's pray she does not strengthen too much more.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

stevetampa33614

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5873 Postby stevetampa33614 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:05 pm

stevetampa33614 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:The ULL cut up and into Dolly wedging off that piece left behind.



Well its tropical so there is a chance, but it probably gets pulled up into Hurricane Dolly.


Anybody else think this is starting to finally look very good on satelitte?
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4830
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5874 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:06 pm

Is Dolly opening her eye?

Image
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#5875 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:08 pm

That seems like rapid intensification to me. Dolly already looks like a hurricane. I wonder what recon will find when they make their way back to the center/eye.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5876 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:09 pm

For what it is worth, looking at 0Z NAM simulated radar (I will be headed for bed before any other 0Z models come out, a W-NW path out to about 18Z, with an apparent suddent turn more NW aimed at BRO. At 6Z, still offshore, almost parallel to the Coast, just offshore BRO.



I don't believe it, but I know a few people will be more excited with a Texas landfall. Belongs in model thread, I know, but that is lonely right now before the main 0Z models

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_ref_l_loop.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5877 Postby Stephanie » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:10 pm

She needs to close up a bit more on the NE section, but I think she's already a hurricane myself. Just waiting for her to blink.
0 likes   

loro-rojo
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2006 7:11 pm
Location: San Juan, PR

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5878 Postby loro-rojo » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:11 pm

Im surprised at how quickly this system has gotten its act together. It looks to me like a 60kt system, or even possibly a hurricane already.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#5879 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:11 pm

This will be an exciting pass though the center for recon.
0 likes   

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1621
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5880 Postby Javlin » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:12 pm

Yea she is starting to get that look and the outflow is just beautiful with this one.Boy I kept reading TUTT or ULL to the S and I am going WTH and sure enough a smidgen still hanging around.Those ULLs can be tough and aggravating when making a forcast and you have to give credit while we were rasing eyebrows (some of us) the NHC got right.Me I probably out on the street in food bank line :)
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests