Well Defined Wave off African Coast

[HURAKAN]

How about those areas behind this one??

Lets first deal with the first one!!!

[NONAME]

hello, can somebody give me a link to the GFDL model website? thnx...

The GFDL Doesn't run till it is an invest but here is a website that has the GFDL look here when/if it becomes an invest.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cycloneye]

Now that the wave and the low pressure are off the African coast,the question is,when they will put a invest tag to it if that occurs at all.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... I was looking at this thing. Besides the 12Z GFS, CMC, NGPS and UKMET develop this thing, but not very intense. The fact that it's moving over cooler waters... I don't think it's gonna develop with a bang. The 18Z GFS doesn't develop it, and there is more upper level divergence to the south. I'm not saying it won't develop down the road... I'm just not sure yet. We'll see I guess...

What's it got going for it? I know it's got a circulation but, without low level convergence...

Upper Level Divergence


Cyclone Phase Map
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html

CMC

GFS

NGP

UKMET

[cycloneye]

I didnt see the 8 PM discussion posted so here it is about the wave added to the surface analysis: The low at 17n,wow way too north as cooler waters and more drier conditions are in that latitud.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 21/1800 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND IS ALONG 17W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A
1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 17N. WAVE EXHIBITS A
GOOD DEAL OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AS IT IS EMERGING OFF AFRICA
AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ERN ATLANTIC. NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE ANALYZED LOW WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 16N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 15W-19W AND
REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

[HURAKAN]

Just the fact that it's emerging at 17ºN is impressive. Nonetheless, the Azores High should push it SW and it should move over warmer waters in a few days. The question will be if the circulation will survive? That's a huge IF.

[Cape Verde]

So is the current consensus that this fairly well-organized storm, for one just reaching open water, that it initialized too far north and can't reach the warmer waters to do much of anything?

[HURAKAN]

Convection trying to develop. Lets see if this continues over the next 6 hours.

[KWT]

I think we are about to get invest 97L out of this because convection has just increased in a fairly decent way on the eastern side of the system, also clearly got a circulation as well!
Will very likely be a recurving system if it does develop.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Latest. Holding up but until it gets to warmer waters, nothing major should happen.

[HURAKAN]

Just to show the animaly in the SST at the African coast.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220625
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 21N...JUST OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA...MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 10N TO 21N. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 16N19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 14W AND 21W.

[Vortex]

Hurrakan,

Gotta hand it to you, the sat images you provide are excellent. Keep up the excellent work.

[americanrebel]

I would have to say we have TD 5 there if not TS Eduardo at the 11 advisory.

[Ed Mahmoud]

At about 17ºN, this system will sleep with Lucca Brazzi.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220547
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM WESTERN
AFRICA AND IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRAVERSING RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Definitely... with my untrained eyes , chances to develop quickly given by the first TWO on this wave.... are continuing to decrease a bit since yesterday morning..." today it's: IT STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION" and yesterday it was in the TWO 2PM : "THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEDEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN".
Wait and see but seems that the cool waters are generate as we're seeing right now a poofing or fizzling trend ....Whereas let's see if the other area behind can sustain some persistent and concentrate convection

[stevetampa33614]

I would have to say we have TD 5 there if not TS Eduardo at the 11 advisory.

While it may be, NHC isnt gonna say anything until Cristobal and Dolly are out of the picture. May be an Invest. Certainly not Eduaord by 11:00

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 221205
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT
265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRAVERSING RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE