ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks Drezee. We should watch closely for signs of
increasing wind speed around the center.

[HouTXmetro]

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Category 5]

Alright people, instead of talking about credibility and points and
attacking forecasts, let's please get back to discussing Dolly:

Right now winds are at 70 mph. It may strengthen, allowing strength
up to 90 mph before landfall. If rapid intensification occurs, wind speeds
in the eye wall may increase to 100 mph.
So it looks like this will be a high end category 1 to low end category
2 hurricane in my opinion.

I agree with you but I think theres a chance it might weaken slightly before landfall due to a drop off in OHC.

[stevetampa33614]

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

What happens then?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Alright people, instead of talking about credibility and points and
attacking forecasts, let's please get back to discussing Dolly:

Right now winds are at 70 mph. It may strengthen, allowing strength
up to 90 mph before landfall. If rapid intensification occurs, wind speeds
in the eye wall may increase to 100 mph.
So it looks like this will be a high end category 1 to low end category
2 hurricane in my opinion.

I agree with you but I think theres a chance it might weaken slightly before landfall due to a drop off in OHC.

Oh I see, the OHC does drop off, so you are right it could weaken a little bit prior to landfall.
The category 1 forecast by the NHC sounds pretty reasonable when we
combine all these factors.

[drezee]

Normally takes 6 hours to for winds\pressure to start to respond. Strongest winds should be found E and SE of center for the next 3-6 hours.

[paintplaye]

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

What happens then?

It could move more north

[HouTXmetro]

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

What happens then?

Well if I'm not mistaken it needs to be within 10 degrees to affect the storm. Right now it's 20 and I doubt it's forecasted to amplify so nothing to worry about. But for educational purporses maybe someone else could explain what would happen in that unlikely scenario.

[sphelps8681]

Just had a light shower in Lumberton.

[JonathanBelles]

Alright people, instead of talking about credibility and points and
attacking forecasts, let's please get back to discussing Dolly:

Right now winds are at 70 mph. It may strengthen, allowing strength
up to 90 mph before landfall. If rapid intensification occurs, wind speeds
in the eye wall may increase to 100 mph.
So it looks like this will be a high end category 1 to low end category
2 hurricane in my opinion.

I agree with you but I think theres a chance it might weaken slightly before landfall due to a drop off in OHC.

Oh I see, the OHC does drop off, so you are right it could weaken a little bit prior to landfall.
The category 1 forecast by the NHC sounds pretty reasonable when we
combine all these factors.

OHC and SST's do drop off...but not enough to drop intensity. It also does take 6-18hrs before any changes in intensity due to water temps.

[drezee]

Based on the HCT assertion, I would say that rapid intensification would start after 2115Z (415pm Eastern). not much time to go before landfall, so probably likely to not go major with current speed.

[galvestontx13]

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

learning so bare with me. why do you say dolly needs to hurry on shore?

[KWT]

It is still strengthen but thus far no RI that was feared and heat content does drop away further west which may prevent any RI from occuring. Still looking likely this will be a 75-85kt hurricane when it does finally make landfall, center is wrapping very well with deep convection still holding as well. Will have to see how that eye feature develops. Best shot at RI occuring will be tonight as we go into Dmax, the fact its holding very well right now is a sign that it should strengthen yet further.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF shows landfall in Kenedy County, with about 8 inches of rain next 3 days in Corpus Christi. Per AccuWx PPV MOS. Which is given in inches.

I believe this model loop gives accumulated rainfall in mm. 400 mm would be about 8 inches.


I think flash flooding may wind up as big a problem as strong winds and coastal flooding. Note how WRF slows storm near landfall.


Will double post in model thread.

[Derek Ortt]

may have some good news

look at the flat edge to the western outflow. That is a sign that shear may soon impact the system

might be shear from Genevieve. Does not look to be enough to weaken the storm, but may be just enough to prevent RI

[CrazyC83]

It is still strengthen but thus far no RI that was feared and heat content does drop away further west which may prevent any RI from occuring. Still looking likely this will be a 75-85kt hurricane when it does finally make landfall, center is wrapping very well with deep convection still holding as well. Will have to see how that eye feature develops. Best shot at RI occuring will be tonight as we go into Dmax, the fact its holding very well right now is a sign that it should strengthen yet further.

I have a feeling that DMAX will help in sending Dolly into a bombing cycle tonight...

[KWT]

That is good news Derek I was wondering if that storm may have a little bit of an impact, wonder if thats why the GFDL holds this around 65-70kts. We will see though whether or not it halts strengthening, still looks like it will become a hurricane.

[Janie2006]

If we had a rapidly amplifying (or deepening) trough we'd see major impacts on the course of Dolly. I really don't think that's the case here. The ridge is still holding across the northern Gulf, although it is indeed weakening and starting to move to the east.

[Kludge]

Squalls are approaching Houston according to that infrared.

Yeah, but they really fall apart rapdily as they come ashore. I'm hoping as we approach convective temps, however, that the added lift and moisture will fire up some widespread rain.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Because of the way the convection is wrapping the center, I am having a difficult time ascertaining exact motion. It looks like it is now WNW, maybe even a little North of WNW, but I wouldn't bet the mortage.


Hopefully pro mets with fancy tools can string recon centers together for recent speed/motion.