ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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#6381 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:04 pm

Thanks Drezee. We should watch closely for signs of
increasing wind speed around the center.
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#6382 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:04 pm

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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Re:

#6383 Postby Category 5 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:07 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Alright people, instead of talking about credibility and points and
attacking forecasts, let's please get back to discussing Dolly:

Right now winds are at 70 mph. It may strengthen, allowing strength
up to 90 mph before landfall. If rapid intensification occurs, wind speeds
in the eye wall may increase to 100 mph.
So it looks like this will be a high end category 1 to low end category
2 hurricane in my opinion.


I agree with you but I think theres a chance it might weaken slightly before landfall due to a drop off in OHC.
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Re:

#6384 Postby stevetampa33614 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:08 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html



What happens then?
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Re: Re:

#6385 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:09 pm

Category 5 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Alright people, instead of talking about credibility and points and
attacking forecasts, let's please get back to discussing Dolly:

Right now winds are at 70 mph. It may strengthen, allowing strength
up to 90 mph before landfall. If rapid intensification occurs, wind speeds
in the eye wall may increase to 100 mph.
So it looks like this will be a high end category 1 to low end category
2 hurricane in my opinion.


I agree with you but I think theres a chance it might weaken slightly before landfall due to a drop off in OHC.


Oh I see, the OHC does drop off, so you are right it could weaken a little bit prior to landfall.
The category 1 forecast by the NHC sounds pretty reasonable when we
combine all these factors.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6386 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:10 pm

Normally takes 6 hours to for winds\pressure to start to respond. Strongest winds should be found E and SE of center for the next 3-6 hours.
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Re: Re:

#6387 Postby paintplaye » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:10 pm

stevetampa33614 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html



What happens then?



It could move more north
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Re: Re:

#6388 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:12 pm

stevetampa33614 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html



What happens then?


Well if I'm not mistaken it needs to be within 10 degrees to affect the storm. Right now it's 20 and I doubt it's forecasted to amplify so nothing to worry about. But for educational purporses maybe someone else could explain what would happen in that unlikely scenario.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6389 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:13 pm

Just had a light shower in Lumberton.
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Re: Re:

#6390 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:13 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
Category 5 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Alright people, instead of talking about credibility and points and
attacking forecasts, let's please get back to discussing Dolly:

Right now winds are at 70 mph. It may strengthen, allowing strength
up to 90 mph before landfall. If rapid intensification occurs, wind speeds
in the eye wall may increase to 100 mph.
So it looks like this will be a high end category 1 to low end category
2 hurricane in my opinion.


I agree with you but I think theres a chance it might weaken slightly before landfall due to a drop off in OHC.


Oh I see, the OHC does drop off, so you are right it could weaken a little bit prior to landfall.
The category 1 forecast by the NHC sounds pretty reasonable when we
combine all these factors.


OHC and SST's do drop off...but not enough to drop intensity. It also does take 6-18hrs before any changes in intensity due to water temps.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6391 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:20 pm

Based on the HCT assertion, I would say that rapid intensification would start after 2115Z (415pm Eastern). not much time to go before landfall, so probably likely to not go major with current speed.
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Re:

#6392 Postby galvestontx13 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:21 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html


learning so bare with me. why do you say dolly needs to hurry on shore?
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#6393 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:23 pm

It is still strengthen but thus far no RI that was feared and heat content does drop away further west which may prevent any RI from occuring. Still looking likely this will be a 75-85kt hurricane when it does finally make landfall, center is wrapping very well with deep convection still holding as well. Will have to see how that eye feature develops. Best shot at RI occuring will be tonight as we go into Dmax, the fact its holding very well right now is a sign that it should strengthen yet further.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6394 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:24 pm

12Z WRF shows landfall in Kenedy County, with about 8 inches of rain next 3 days in Corpus Christi. Per AccuWx PPV MOS. Which is given in inches.

I believe this model loop gives accumulated rainfall in mm. 400 mm would be about 8 inches.


I think flash flooding may wind up as big a problem as strong winds and coastal flooding. Note how WRF slows storm near landfall.


Will double post in model thread.
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Derek Ortt

#6395 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:25 pm

may have some good news

look at the flat edge to the western outflow. That is a sign that shear may soon impact the system

might be shear from Genevieve. Does not look to be enough to weaken the storm, but may be just enough to prevent RI
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Re:

#6396 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:26 pm

KWT wrote:It is still strengthen but thus far no RI that was feared and heat content does drop away further west which may prevent any RI from occuring. Still looking likely this will be a 75-85kt hurricane when it does finally make landfall, center is wrapping very well with deep convection still holding as well. Will have to see how that eye feature develops. Best shot at RI occuring will be tonight as we go into Dmax, the fact its holding very well right now is a sign that it should strengthen yet further.


I have a feeling that DMAX will help in sending Dolly into a bombing cycle tonight...
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#6397 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:27 pm

That is good news Derek I was wondering if that storm may have a little bit of an impact, wonder if thats why the GFDL holds this around 65-70kts. We will see though whether or not it halts strengthening, still looks like it will become a hurricane.
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#6398 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:27 pm

If we had a rapidly amplifying (or deepening) trough we'd see major impacts on the course of Dolly. I really don't think that's the case here. The ridge is still holding across the northern Gulf, although it is indeed weakening and starting to move to the east.
Last edited by Janie2006 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#6399 Postby Kludge » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:28 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Squalls are approaching Houston according to that infrared.


Yeah, but they really fall apart rapdily as they come ashore. I'm hoping as we approach convective temps, however, that the added lift and moisture will fire up some widespread rain.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6400 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:30 pm

Because of the way the convection is wrapping the center, I am having a difficult time ascertaining exact motion. It looks like it is now WNW, maybe even a little North of WNW, but I wouldn't bet the mortage.


Hopefully pro mets with fancy tools can string recon centers together for recent speed/motion.
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